Political game changers

Presidential politics has been a major media story for the past year, it may be difficult to believe that the official campaign season will only start this coming week. Already, there are speculations  on possible winners and losers. For those who are intending to pay close attention to the political process, I have two initial suggestions.

The first suggestion is that the choice of who to vote for should not depend on who one believes will win or lose. There is a  tendency to want to be identified with winners. In all the past elections  I have ended up supporting more losing candidates than winners. But I have never regretted my choices.  

The second suggestion is to forget the surveys now coming out. The results of the surveys in January 2010, for the presidential and vice presidential race, were different from the final results of the 2010 election. In the ongoing American primary elections, the survey results for Iowa, a day before the election, were predicting a win for Trump and Clinton. The final results put Trump as a poor second and a virtual tie for Clinton and Sanders. American pollsters are supposed to be the most scientific and accurate in the world.

Political survey results are unpredictable barometers because, in politics, there will always be “game changers” and “black swans.” These are the unpredictable events that can drastically change voter preferences almost overnight. For example, at this point in time, here are some potential game changers in this coming election.

Final cast

The Supreme Court still has to decide on whether Grace Poe and possibly Duterte are qualified to run for the president. This decision will be a game changer but  the  final consequence of the decision s purely speculative.  

In the case of the Grace Poe decision, there are those who believe that the candidacy of Mar Roxas will benefit from a  bigger field of candidates. As the administration candidate, the theory is that the more opposition candidates, the more beneficial for the administration candidate. There is, however, the opposing view is that a large number of Grace Poe supporters will actually shift to Mar Roxas if Poe is disqualified. In fact, there are those who believe that there is still a large group of voters who are choosing between Grace Poe and Mar Roxas. There is also the opinion that Binay and Duterte are appealing to the same group of voters and, therefore, Binay would be the main beneficiary if Duterte is disqualified.

Until the final cast of presidential candidates is decided, all these predictions will remain speculations. Someone told me, half joking, that this is an election that could well be decided by the Supreme Court.

Presidential debates

The series of presidential debates that will be sponsored by the Commission on Elections (Comelec) is a new thing in Philippine politics. It is still too early to determine whether this innovation will have any significant effect on the election outcome.

In the United States, these debates are election staple and they have been game changers. For example, the strong showing of Marco Rubio has been a major factor for his unexpected third place finish in the Iowa primary and his rise in the polls. On the other hand, the very poor performance of Jeb Bush in the debates is one reason that he has sunk from being the favored candidate to being on the verge of being dropped as a viable presidential contender. The effect of the debate performance of the candidates in our own election is still a matter of conjecture.

Theory of command votes

The belief that a large segment of voters will vote for the presidential candidate mandated by local leaders is another debatable theory. There is an argument that says that among those in the “D and E” income classes, voters will choose local candidates based on local allegiances. But will this theory apply to national candidates?

There is strong anecdotal evidence that during the final stage of the campaign period, local leaders will focus on local candidates and  ignore the national candidates. Mass media also allows national candidates to appeal directly to voters unlike local candidates for whom  house to house campaigning is still the norm. Many congressmen  have told me that their only objective is to win because anyway they know that any winning presidential candidate will woo the winning congressmen to join their party.

Yellow and other voting blocs

It seems that, at this time, there are major voting blocs that have not yet consolidated in terms of participating as a bloc. There are three major groups that still have not consolidated and mobilized to the extent that they have done in past elections.

The most important is the Yellow Movement, born during the People Power Revolution; structured by the Cory Aquino for President campaign; nurtured during resignation campaigns during the Estrada and Arroyo presidencies; and reinvigorated during the Noynoy for President campaign.

Then there is the Iglesia ni Kristo whose political clout is now questionable because of all the reported internal dissensions inside the hierarchy of the INC. The third group is the Muslim population and whether the non-passage of the BBL will be a rallying point for them to consolidate and to mobilize their community to vote as a single bloc.

There are other game changers and black swans which I will discuss in future columns. In the end, the best guide for choosing a candidate is still your conscience. It may sound like a cliché, but truly the future of the Filipino people is in our hands and not in any single person.

Aquino Legacy: An Enduring Narrative is a collection of essays and stories on Ninoy, Cory and the Aquino family who have played such a pivotal and dramatic role in Philippine history most especially in the restoration of democracy. The book is co-authored by Elfren Sicangco Cruz and Neni Sta. Romana Cruz and is now available in Fully Booked stores.

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