The world around the Philippines

The Philippines is a nation and a society in the midst of a transformational change. It is understandable why our attention is focused on internal issues like eradicating corruption, building social and physical infrastructure, and preventing the return of those longing for strong man or martial rule.

In addition, Metro Manilans are engrossed in the daily problems of traffic, crime and pollution. In fact, people from outside this metropolis often complain that the problems of Metro Manila are treated as national problems while those in the provinces are considered local, or at most, regional concerns. Having grown up in Bacolod City, I can appreciate and identify with these complaints of an “imperialist” Metro Manila.

But no matter where we live in this country, we often forget that there are certain events in the world around us which will have an effect on the lives of every Filipino in all income classes and educational attainment. We also need to realize that we are again living in turbulent and volatile times which will unleash forces – economic, social, political and ecological – which  will dramatically affect our lives and those of future generations.

It would be wise for us to understand and monitor these forces and prepare ourselves for any ripple effects.

For example, when the Myanmar generals agreed to lift some of their harsh and repressive laws, the world cheered what was perceived to be a return to democracy. But the generals continue to retain political power and full democracy has not been restored to that country.

Thailand was considered an economic and political model for the rest of Southeast Asia for many decades. But this year, the generals have imposed martial rule and have taken over the government and major state corporations like Thai Airways.

In the Philippines, there was a  period , during the terms of Estrada and Arroyo, when stories of possible coup attempts and junta rule kept floating around. Today, under the presidency of P-Noy, there is political stability that has brought back confidence to local and foreign investors. But if we look at the events in Myanmar and Thailand, we need to remember that in a future presidency which will not have the confidence of the people and which will derail the economic gains of this present administration, it is again possible that we can see a return to political instability in this country.

We also need to view, with concern, the recent moves by China and Xi Jinping to build a new world order. In fact, the Economist magazine went further and said that the goal of China is a Pax Sinica. This is presumably supposed to replace Pax Americana as the new world order.

There have been several events that have recently taken place that are evidence of all these goals. The Shanghai Co-operation Organization (SCO) is composed of six countries – China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan – which is considered to be the equivalent of the NATO – a mutual defense organization – in that region. This year, SCO agreed to allow other countries, like Pakistan and Mongolia – to join the organization. This will make SCO go beyond Central Asia. The next question is whether countries in Southeast Asia will join SCO. This could then divide ASEAN into two groups. One composed of allies of China. The second group composed of countries with territorial disputes with China like the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

China is also building other organizations like the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia or CICA and the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa) with its own version of the World Bank or International Monetary Fund. In all these organizations, China is a dominant power and the Western Powers, like the United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom are excluded. Many other countries are also not included – like the Philippines, Vietnam and Japan.

It would seem that we are moving towards a global situation where there will be again two world orders and the Philippines, because of national interest, will find itself aligning with one of them. There will be serious implications for our country because we have an ongoing territorial dispute with China which is aiming to lead a new world order which not only excludes our country but considers the Philippines as a member of the opposing world order.

The ongoing struggle for democracy in Hong Kong is another situation we need to carefully watch. The promise of “one country – two systems” was supposed to attract Hong Kong and Taiwan to voluntarily become part of China. Now that this promise has been abandoned, how will Hong Kong react? More critical to us is how will Taiwan react?  This abandonment of the “one country –two systems” may now lead to an absolute refusal by Taiwan to voluntarily join China or even to a declaration of an independent Taiwan.

China will never accept an independent Taiwan but will China attempt to militarily invade Taiwan? Is China prepared to challenge the United States in this part of the world? Certainly not now, but there will come a time when this confrontation could take place especially when China replaces the United States as the biggest economic power in the world. There could be naval and military skirmishes on the very door steps of Philippine territory.

If students, intellectuals and activists bring the struggle for democracy to the streets of Hong Kong, China will resort to any necessary means to suppress those demonstrations. Central Hong Kong could become the next Tiananmen Square with thousands of casualties and many thousands arrested.

There are thousands of Filipinos living and working in Hong Kong and many Philippine businesses with links to Hong Kong based firms. There will be serious economic repercussions in this country if Hong Kong becomes a center for dissent in China.

Then there is the Arab tragedy caused by the rise of extremist groups advocating violence as a way of life. It seems that violent terrorist groups  like Al-Qaeda, are being replaced by even more violent and more extremist groups like ISIS. The UNHCR estimates there have been close to 1.2 million deaths caused by civil wars and internal conflicts in the Middle East in the last 20 years. There have been millions of refugees especially women and children.

Will the Arab tragedy affect the whole Muslim world? We hope not and we note that in Southeast Asia, the Islamic democracies – Indonesia and Malaysia – are doing very well. There are now stories that there are a few ISIS supporters in Mindanao but they are not yet a serious threat. This has made the Bangsamoro Basic Law such a vital agreement in our country.

It is true that as Filipinos, our national interests must come first. However, it is time to accept that the world around us will ultimately influence the destiny of our nation and future generations.

We must also become global citizens and accept the responsibility of influencing events beyond our boundaries. This nation cannot continue simply becoming a spectator. The Philippines must become an active participant, and even a leader, of events that will determine the future of the whole world.

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