Basis for Duterte’s anti-US sentiments

Vancouver, Canada – While on my Easter break, I received a very interesting article from our Washington-based friends at CSIS. The article was written by Jeffrey Ordaniel, a resident Vasey fellow with Pacific Forum CSIS. Titled “Dealing with Duterte’s Philippines,” Ordaniel’s write-up provides an absorbing perspective on why the election of Rodrigo Duterte as president and his anti-American rhetoric has “significantly weakened the Philippines-US alliance” – and the steps that the administration of Donald Trump can take to reverse this trajectory.

Duterte’s “initial foreign policy preferences” – the state visit to China, the downplaying of the favorable arbitral tribunal ruling, the warm welcome to a visiting Russian warship with an upcoming state visit to Russia – dealt a major blow to the US position in Asia and reshaped the strategic environment surrounding the South China Sea, according to Ordaniel.

US criticism on the war against illegal drugs and concerns over human rights violations has soured the relationship as seen in the stinging tirades directed at Barack Obama, resulting in the declaration to sever ties with the US and the suspension of joint maritime exercises and patrols in the South China Sea. But Ordaniel points out that Duterte “has proven to be an inconsistent and misinformed leader who, on many occasions, does not act or speak on the basis of facts, proven statistics or accurate intelligence information.”

During the confirmation hearing of Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, he admitted that he does not know why the joint exercises and patrols, which are beneficial to capacity building, had been suspended. “I really don’t know because the president has been issuing statements without consulting the Cabinet,” Lorenzana said.

This demonstrates the kind of disconnect happening between the president and members of his Cabinet. This was highlighted again when “…Lorenzana had to correct Duterte after the Filipino president publicly displayed alarming confusion over the location of Benham Rise, a maritime area in the Pacific under the Philippines’ extended continental shelf that China was reportedly trying to survey. Duterte initially thought that the area was part of the South China Sea.” 

Not that the president’s complaints against the US are without basis, Ordaniel avers. “Despite the US-Philippines alliance, the Philippine military remains among the most ill-equipped in Asia. While Washington has poured in $6.5 and $1.4 billion of military aid to Egypt and Pakistan, respectively from 2011 to 2015, the Philippines only received $154 million in the same period. The allotment included hand-me-downs like the three weaponless 1960’s era Hamilton-class Coast Guard cutters acquired by the Philippine Navy through the DOD’s Excess Defense Articles Program.”

At a small dinner with US Ambassador Sung Kim hosted by former Ambassador Joey Cuisia and businessman Richard Lee (see “This Week on PeopleAsia” at the Philippine STAR Allure section today), Ambassador Kim told us the United States has provided very significant solid aid to the Philippines not only in terms of military assistance but through various economic and financial aid packages in many areas – from scientific research to education to sanitation, water security and disaster relief amounting to several billions. 

However, I pointed out to the US Ambassador that in the mind of the president, the Americans could have done something from day one when the Chinese started their activities in the disputed maritime territories. As it is, the president is convinced that the US will not help us if push comes to shove.

This was also a point raised by Ordaniel, asserting that the president’s assessment is not groundless. “In 2012, the Obama administration essentially abandoned the Philippines in Scarborough Shoal, despite declaring the South China Sea as a US national interest, and the much touted ‘pivot to Asia’ policy. During Obama’s 2014 Asia tour, Manila failed to secure a commitment from Washington to defend Philippine vessels in the South China Sea per Article 5 of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty” – in contrast to Obama’s affirmation that the Japanese Senkaku Islands would receive coverage under Article 5 of the US-Japan security agreement.

Nevertheless, there is still an opportunity to reset relations under the administration of Donald Trump, seeing that both men have the same style. Discussions can be initiated between the two governments starting with the ASEAN summit in Manila. The Philippines’ ASEAN chairmanship “presents Washington with an important opportunity to influence the region’s security and economic discourses,” Ordaniel says.

Instead of merely criticizing Duterte’s anti-illegal drugs campaign, “the US should… offer assistance centering on reforms and modernization of the country’s law-enforcement and justice system. The only way to influence Philippine policy is to co-opt Duterte’s priority and turn it into an area of cooperation, and not preach about human rights,” advises Ordaniel.

“By acting as a partner in this fight, Washington will not only strengthen the alliance and keep Manila from entering Beijing’s orbit, but also significantly influence the rule of law and the human rights situation in the Philippines.”

A Trump-Duterte meeting would provide an opportunity to “further institutionalize the alliance,” considering that mechanisms like the Visiting Forces Agreement and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement are still in place. The US should also show “clearer commitment to defend Philippine vessels in the South China Sea,” and set up an alternative weapons acquisition program instead of the negative-sounding “Excess Defense Articles Program” to address “trust issues” regarding the alliance and significantly help the AFP achieve a minimum credible defense posture.

I agree with Ordaniel that these moves will show that “the US national interest in East Asia’s maritime commons aligns with Manila’s own national interest, and is not only a self-serving policy to contain a rising China.”

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