Scaled down by politics
This year's Balikatan 2017 has commenced, but with a big difference. According to Lt. Gen. Oscar Lactao, the exercise director of the Philippines, the joint exercises with the US military will focus on humanitarian crisis, disaster response, and counter-terrorism, and not on territorial defense and maritime security. He acknowledged that politics played a key part in the way this year's joint exercises will be conducted. And by politics, it can only mean China, and how not to anger or offend them in any way. Perhaps in China's mind, what would the Philippines and the US be training for with regards to territorial defense and maritime security, if there is no territory to defend and no ocean to secure, since they own it all? Any kind of military training in those aspects would be seen as aggressive and a challenge to its sovereignty, wouldn't it?
In addition to that, the annual Philippine Amphibious Landing Exercise (PHIBLEX) and Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT), also with the US military, will no longer push through this year. Same reason. President Duterte has made known early on his no longer wanting to have anything to do with the American military, even at one time asking them to leave Mindanao. His disdain for the US is well known. So it is no surprise that aside from the scaling down of Balikatan 2017, PHIBLEX and CARAT will no longer push through. I guess the EDCA, VFA, and the Mutual Defense Treaty are not far from being scrapped as well.
This is definitely change. A longtime ally slowly but surely being eased out of the picture, replaced by China and maybe even Russia. He has practically eliminated the Americans from the equation, much to China's delight I'm sure. Duterte has already expressed his desire for the AFP to have joint military exercises with China. It is of no consequence that the majority of Filipinos still distrust China, and have more trust in the US. But what can you do? What is ironic is that even as Duterte brings the country closer to China, we are still being treated as "intruders". Our aircraft and sea vessels still receive warnings from the Chinese and orders to turn around or veer away, especially when approaching the artificial islands that China has made. These islands already have weapons systems and even military aircraft. If we are supposed to be chummy with the Chinese, why all these warnings?
The litmus test of this new found friendship are the plans to refurbish and rehabilitate Pagasa Island. The Chinese ambassador to the country already stated that the occupancy and planned rehabilitation of Pagasa Island is illegal, because it is technically Chinese territory. It would be interesting to see what the Chinese will do, especially those on Fiery Cross Reef, if an aircraft with personnel and ships with materials start arriving in Pagasa, if they arrive at all. Things may be different after Duterte returns from his second official trip to Beijing this May. What is to prevent China from stopping the Philippines' plans for Pagasa, by merely telling the president?
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