Will SCS/WPS become China’s Crimea?

Just when you think readers have had enough of Hitler analogies, comes the latest incarnation in Russian President Vladimir Putin, but this time closer to the mark than the comparison to President Xi Jin Ping had been. Western analysts say Putin is exactly employing Hitler’s tactic of using the protection of their brethrens from the locals as an excuse to annex territories. He started it in Moldova and Georgia taking slivers of territory with predominantly Russian population. And now he has moved to Crimea.  It is all part of Russia’s assertive interventionist policy with its neighbors in a bid to restore its pre-eminent place in the world.  At least this is the general view in the West and many see a parallel with what is happening in East Asia. 

Last Sunday, Crimea voted to be part of Russia and yesterday Putin started the process of annexation in Moscow.  Europe and America may froth in the mouth but Putin knows Crimea is his and that the West is powerless to prevent it. More worrisome is that this seems to be not a case of opportunism, but rather part of a grand design to restore Russia’s historical borders.

Crimea is vital to Russia as it is its only warm water port. So long as he had a pro-Russian leader at the helm in Ukraine, Putin was content to let things be since they had unhampered access to its ports anyway. The fall of pro-Russian President Yunakovich and Ukraine’s inexorable turn to the West gave Putin the excuse to act.  For all the posturing, Western Europe had already accepted the fact that Crimea has been lost.

There may have been pro-Western demonstrators that have taken to the street in Moscow to protest Putin’s actions, but the cause of Crimea is a matter of great national pride in Russia and he has public opinion on his side. For Putin personally, annexing Crimea would be consolation for what now appears to be losing his grasp on Ukraine which is decisively moving away from Russian influence and onto Western Europe’s.

But will Putin stop there now that his appetite has been whet? Is what is happening in Eastern Ukraine in cities like Donetsk  a prelude to a takeover of slivers of land where ethnic Russian and Russian-speakers predominate? All it would take is action by the new Kiev government to suppress this increasingly violent dissent for Putin to have his excuse to send in “volunteers” to protect the Russian population.  Will Moldova and the Baltic States be next?

Obama’s leadership?

Where has President Obama – the leader of the Western World – been in the midst of all of these? If John McCain is to be believed – he has never been shy to share his view of Obama’s foreign policy – the President is “woefully naïve” when it comes to Moscow. “Crimea has exposed the disturbing lack of realism that has characterized our foreign policy under President Obama. It is this worldview, or lack of one, that must change,” McCain wrote. “No more reset buttons. No more ‘Tell Vladimir I’ll be more flexible,’” McCain continued. “Treat him for what he is – an individual who believes in restoring the Old Russian empire.”

He urges a more forceful response. “Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country,” McCain said. “It’s a nation that is really only dependent on oil and gas for their economy, and so economic sanctions are important.” He even went to the extent of suggesting that the West supply the Ukrainians with weapons.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham is even less sparing, calling President Obama’s foreign policy closer to “scream loudly and carry no stick.”  When Ukraine asked for military aid including weapons, he said Obama obliged by giving them food rations instead.

But these are the Republicans speaking. Harsh but fair critique? Time will tell and fairly soon.  With Crimea now in Russia’s orbit, apparently with tacit understanding or acceptance from the US and EU, the key question is will they draw the line between Crimea and the rest of the Ukraine and respond more forcefully were Russia to cross the line? What happens next has grave repercussions on us even though we are thousands of miles away from the conflict.

China is watching

You can be sure that someone in our neighborhood is taking note of what is happening in the Ukraine and more particularly the seeming passivity of the US and Europe to such a blatant and outrageous land grab.  They will note that the West’s response after much prevarication has been selective and limited because they are unwilling to assume the economic costs of meaningful sanctions or risk war over what is essentially a “give” – to use a golfing term for Crimea – for Russia.

Like Russia, China has manifested territorial claims based on history. Similarly, there is popular support for China’s assertiveness and hardly any civil society or critical media to temper its aggression. Will China be emboldened to think that the US will not risk getting into conflict over the chain of uninhabited rocks and shoals that dot the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea when push comes to shove as well? Is there a US red line in these disputed waters?

There are many Filipinos who have harbored doubts about the willingness of the US to fulfill its commitment under the Mutual Defense Treaty should our territorial integrity be compromised. They will not take heart to hear interim Ukrainian Prime Minister Yatsenyuk betray his doubts over the 1994 Budapest Memorandum – signed by the US, UK, Ukraine and Russia – which guaranteed Ukrainian territorial integrity in exchange for the dismantling of its massive nuclear arsenal. Speaking at the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC, he was asked how confident he was of getting support from the West. He did not answer the question directly. Instead he said that the issue is one of global security and not just Ukraine. “We executed this memorandum,“ he said. “And today we ask for protection. If we don’t get this protection, tell me the way how the world is to reinforce or ask another country to stop their nuclear programs.”

People will also note that the United States not so long ago announced its much-vaunted pivot to Asia policy. It has been two years hence and so far it has remained long on rhetoric but short on substance. With the Middle East in turmoil and now Europe facing a grave crisis, America is faced with severe choices at a time when it is downsizing its military.  One can be forgiven for expressing doubts as to when this pivot actually manifests itself in a meaningful way. 

China’s creeping occupation of the SCS/WPS is no longer speculation but fact. And she has been sounding more bellicose by the minute. These are worrying times indeed. Obama is coming to the Philippines at a most crucial time. But will he leave the Filipinos feeling safe and assured or just as anxious as the Ukrainians? What happens there next should give us a clue of what to expect from President Obama’s visit.