News Analysis: Geneva talks on Syria still face two variables

CAIRO (Xinhua) - The upcoming Geneva conference on Syria, slated for June, still faces two variables: whether the Assad government would attend the conference, and whether Iran would be allowed presence.

As the recent "Friends of Syria" meeting in Amman called for a transitional Syrian government to end the crisis, some analysts admit it is "the first obstacle" that the Geneva conference would face.

Momen Kouifatie, an exiled Syrian opposition figure and Cairo- based author, told Xinhua that "Before the Syrian opposition heads for Geneva, it must be assured with guarantees that the Assad regime would depart Syria and hand over all power to the intended transitional government."

Mostafa Kamel al-Sayyid, political science professor in Egypt, considered the presence of Assad government in the upcoming conference "unacceptable" for the Syrian opposition and the West, particularly the United States, Britain and France.

"I don't think this will be a condition to start the Geneva talks, but the departure of Assad might be the final conclusion of the settlement," Sayyid told Xinhua.

The participation of Iran, regarded by many as a "biased" player, in the Geneva conference is also heatedly debated. While the Syrian opposition and most West states reject Iran's presence in the upcoming talks, the Arab League, Russia, Turkey and Egypt believe that Iran could be part of the solution to the 26-month- old crisis.

On Saturday, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi expressed hope that the Geneva II meeting would help resolve the Syrian crisis, while Turkish Agriculture Minister Mehdi Eker said at the joint press conference that "the Syrian problem would not be settled without the engagement of Tehran and Ankara."

According to Syrian writer Kouifatie, Syria's Assad regime is becoming weary, while Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah has taken over fighting against the Syrian opposition militants.

"Iran cannot be part of the solution while it is part of the problem," Kouifatie told Xinhua.

An official of the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC), who identified himself as Shufi, agreed that "Iran is not just an ally of Assad, but it led military operations in the conflict... This would make Iran a biased party in Geneva talks and therefore we reject its presence."

However, Egyptian political science professor Sayyid thought it is "not wise" of the Syrian opposition to reject Iran's participation.

"The absence of Iran will threaten the political settlement of the crisis and may lead to the failure of Geneva talks," Sayyid told Xinhua, arguing that Iran could guarantee commitment of its ally Hezbollah if a settlement is reached in Geneva.

Fakhri al-Tahtawi, international crise management expert and political science professor, noted that the United States has meant to prolong the fighting period to exhaust "all concerned parties," including Assad, Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah, and to set the Geneva conference as the "last chance" for a peaceful resolution.