The Iran war; DFA’s crazy alert levels

How long will the Iran war last?

Four to five weeks, Donald Trump said five days ago. Today, he does not know. He also doesn’t know how to end the war, even if he wants to now.

“We will defend ourselves, whatever the cost,” vows Ali Larijani, secretary general of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

“Iran war is not going to last (long),” said a top Filipino tycoon when I queried him, but quickly adds, “the Ukraine war was supposed to be only for days. It has lasted four years.” This tycoon has substantial interests in businesses that prosper in peace time – energy, travel, infra and consumption.

The US military insists the Iran war won’t be a “forever war,” unlike the Iraq war (nine years from March 2003) and Afghanistan (20 years, from 2001). Both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars were debacles.

“The Iraq and Afghanistan wars are widely viewed as a strategic debacle for the US costing over $4 trillion to $6 trillion, nearly 7,000 US lives and severely damaging regional stability. They failed to achieve long-term democratic stability and were viewed as failures by over half of Americans,” notes AI.

According to some estimates, Trump has spent $240 billion to start the Iran war. Forbes estimates US cost has reached $1 billion: “Three F-15E Strike Eagle jets were also struck down in Kuwait on Sunday, CENTCOM confirmed, costing the US military nearly $300 million at a minimum, based on each jet costing an estimated $90 million. Before the strikes began, transporting troops, ships and aircraft to the region likely cost the military an estimated $630 million. Those assets cost anywhere from $35,000 (the cost of a one-way drone) to millions (Tomahawk missiles) to produce and operate.”

Cost, not strategic objectives, is the No. 1 factor why people expect a short war, meaning a closure before the end of this year.

Other reasons for expecting an abbreviated Iran war:

1) There is a mid-term election ongoing in the US. Americans by now should be hurting with the war’s aftermath and will vote with their wrath and feet.

2) The Middle East is in an unprecedented turmoil, its future unsafe and uncertain. That puts pressure on the US.

Despite their petrodollars (they own half of the world’s oil reserves), Gulf countries cannot export oil, cannot secure safe water and food supplies, cannot reap the benefits of a travel boom and are now in constant threat of reprisal from terrorists trained, funded and unleashed by Iran over the years. Their energy infrastructure is in peril from Iran’s drone and missile attacks. Their seven major airports are closed. Tourism contributes $400 billion to Middle East GDP, 11.5 percent to Saudi Arabia’s GDP, 11.6 percent to UAE’s and 15 percent to Qatar’s. Since the outbreak on Feb. 28, over 20,000 flights have been cancelled, affecting four million passengers. This early, airline fares have risen. Air France, which flies direct Manila to Paris, has doubled its price, P1 million for two business class tickets. Before the war, you could get a Qatar Manila-Paris return business ticket for just $3,000.

3) Protagonists on both sides may be running low on logistics, munitions and manpower.

Iran has long prepared for a war of attrition anchored on cheap drones (costing only $20,000 each) doing air battle with multimillion-dollar missiles of the US and Israel (a Patriot missile costs $3 million). Russian sources say Iran can produce 5,000 drones a month.

4) The growing perception is igniting the Iran war without provocation and without US Congress vote was a strategic mistake on the part of the US and Israel.

US and Israel miscalculated Iran’s capacity and proclivity for a prolonged war.

When the war began Feb. 28, the Israeli military estimated that Iran had 2,500 ballistic missiles. But on March 4, the Israeli military warned that Iran retains substantial capacity to launch missiles against Israel, despite ongoing strikes targeting missile launch sites in the Islamic Republic.

Iran’s drones are launched from a simple scaffold that can be built in just a few hours. They have proved effective in damaging the US military’s communications and coordination infrastructure.

“The overarching goal of the Iranian regime is resilience – the ability to persevere, to absorb the blows and then continue to fight,” German media DW quotes Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, “they are preparing for a long war.”

Alert levels

“All the major airports (in the Middle East) are closed,” Department of Migrant Workers Secretary Hans Cacdac told a Senate hearing yesterday to justify his failure to repatriate to safety hundreds of thousands of Filipino expats stranded in the Middle East.

I have been texting Hans Candac asking for an accurate number of Filipino OFWs in the Middle East, by country. After three days, he has not responded. Apparently, he does not know.

Per data of Sen. Sherwin Gatchalian, 15,000 of our OFWs are in need of immediate repatriation from four “crisis alert” countries in the Middle East, per alert of the DFA. Including non-OFW Filipinos, some 89,000 Filipinos need to be repatriated, of whom 69,000 are OFWs. The Foreign Service Institute counts more than 93,000 in need of repatriation, including undocumented Filipinos.

At the hearing, Cacdac seemed out of his wits, was hemming and hawing and giving nonsensical answers.

The Department of Foreign Affairs has a crazy alert level system. Countries in the middle of the Iran war are not even at Alert Levels 3 and 4 – levels that require OFWs to seek shelter, move to safe places or evacuate immediately. Israel and Iran’s alert level? Just Alert Level 2 – no need to panic, no need to repatriate. Unbelievable! “The idea is not to alarm our citizens,” a DFA official told the Senate. Unbelievable!

The more urgent question now is: can we take care of our 2.5 million OFWs in the Middle East? Are they safe? Can we bring them home safely?

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