The COVID-19 rollercoaster

In the first month of 2021, COVID-19 cases are rising in the Cebu cities and province and rising fast. This after the pandemic fist gripped the world in the first quarter of last year, and slowly slid down in the last quarter, after governments, both national and local, first initiated overly restrictive lockdowns in knee-jerk fashion and later formulated health protocols to contain the rapid transmission of the virus. Quarantine levels were eased as the cases and deaths trickled down. Now they’re up again.

In fairness to all, this did not happen in the Philippines alone. Many other countries supposedly suffered their “second wave”, reminiscent of the same fashion most, if not all, past pandemics behaved. The Spanish flu in 1918-1920, considered the deadliest, had a second and third wave. Maybe, this reflects how man traditionally behaves when faced with this kind of global pandemics. Why we haven’t learned from the past is something to reflect on and try to ensure not to repeat.

The truth of the matter is, it’s all science and mathematics, and not of anything else. Some people try to make it a choice between death by the virus or death due to lack of food, a battle between health and the economy. There are even economists who try to place a value of a COVID-19 death and compare it against the equivalent value of economic growth. But we don’t need to, because if we follow the science and the math, we can effectively transition into the New Normal without stunting the economy.

I am well-versed with math, not so much with the science, and definitely not with health science. But I believe both have the same trajectory. The key driver to transmission, and hence, its control, is the reproduction number, represented as R. While it has become an oft-quoted number, it is difficult to measure or predict and much easier deduced from past data. Yet, it does help to know its severity and craft/impose protocols to decrease it. This translates to “Wear Masks, Wash Hands, and Social Distancing.” Imposing isolation, quarantines, and lockdowns do not necessarily affect transmission unless the health protocols are observed.

And this is the reason for the uptick. We released restrictions from ECQ to MECQ, GCQ, and MGCQ, all with the intent of re-energizing the economy, but forgetting that the virus is still out there! And it has become even more potent than before, what with the variants coming out. There is no problem with easing CQ levels because these do not affect transmissibility – health protocols do. But in the very few times I ventured out, I saw people without masks, those with masks over their mouths only, face-shields worn like fashionable visors, and no social-distancing. I’m willing to bet handwashing went out of fashion, too! What do you think the virus would say? “Yehey! Let’s go party!” Then came the cases. And unfortunately, the deaths.

Only two parties can impose health protocols – the local government and the people. People can’t force other people to comply. But the local government can! If it won’t, then we will be caught in this never-ending roller-coaster. And people will continue to die. Not just people. Our friends. Our relatives. Us. The government can’t wash their hands of that.