My bold prediction based on a number of assumptions is that Mar Roxas will most probably win in Cebu City with a margin of a few thousand votes and also in the province of Cebu with not more than a hundred thousand votes. It is not because Mar is a strong candidate but it is because the Cebuano politicians who shall support his candidacy have very firm hold on their respective bailiwick. This is assuming that Tomas Osmeña and Serge Osmeña will work hard to make Mar win a sizable victory in their turfs.
Even if the Team Rama wins in Cebu City, with due respect to Mayor Mike, we do not really think that those who will stick it out with him and Atty Edgar Labella will also carry Jojo Binay for President. Cebuano voters are not really known to vote straight for all candidates. Besides, Cebu City has always been a Liberal Party stronghold since the times of Serging Osmeña. Cebu City always stood on the basis of intelligent choice even if the province was going to the side of Malacañan at those times, Cebu City stood alone in the opposition.
In the province, if and when the governor, Junjun Davide, and his vice governor stay together as a tandem, they will carry Mar Roxas, not really because the people love Mar but because they are loyal to Davide and Vice Governor Agnes Almendras-Magpale.
The governor will carry Mar in the second district, especially in the eastern side including Argao, Dalaguete, and the smaller towns facing Bohol. But the western side, soon to become the seventh district may go where Pabling Garcia will lead them.
If the Garcias shall carry Binay, then the vice president might win in Dumanjug, Ronda, Alcantara, Moalboal, Badian, and the rest of the towns facing Negros. If Cong Gwen carries Binay, the third district may go to the vice president but Mayor Sonny of Toledo will balance the votes out. The fourth district will be a tossup between Binay and Roxas but the fifth will surely be for Roxas if and when the Duranos will stick it out with the LP. The vote-rich sixth district is inclined to go for Roxas.
The first district is perhaps the biggest in terms of voting population. Carcar, Naga and Talisay, closely followed by Minglanilla then San Fernando and Sibonga . All in all, this fastest growing district will have no less than 400,000 voters. They will go where former Congressman Eddiegul and his grandson shall lead them. If the Gullases shall go for Binay, Roxas may yet be defeated in Cebu. The first district shall be the tipping point. Whoever wins really big in the first district may come out as the over-all winner. Eddiegul therefore will make the crucial difference.
All these premature predictions however shall go haywire if and when the presidential contest will turn out to be a derby where four or five candidates shall enter the arena altogether. That ''karambola'' or ''labolabo'' scenario will tend to favor Jojo Binay more than it will tilt towards Roxas.