It’s a toss-up in finals

MANILA, Philippines — Barangay Ginebra has beaten Meralco in two PBA Governors Cup finals but in their third best-of-7 title series starting Tuesday, all bets are off as the Bolts shoot for a first-ever championship since joining the pro league in 2010-11.

If hunger is a gauge, there’s no team hungrier for a crown than Meralco. This is the Bolts’ 18th playoff appearance in 27 overall conferences and third trip to the finals with the previous two ending in a bridesmaid finish to Ginebra in 2016 and 2017. Meralco coach Norman Black has won 11 titles in the PBA but none with the Bolts and his last trophy came with TNT in 2012-13.

Allen Durham is in his fifth PBA tour of duty, four with Meralco. He was named Best Import twice for leading the Bolts to the finals but couldn’t deliver a title. Now, Durham is averaging a career-high 30.9 points and can’t wait to crack the Ginebra jinx. It’s unfinished business for Durham. He’s joined by Bong Quinto, Raymond Almazan, Nards Pinto and Allein Maliksi – all of whom weren’t with Meralco in the two previous finals against Ginebra. Back for another try are Baser Amer, Chris Newsome, Cliff Hodge, Anjo Caram and Rey Hugnatan. Durham is sure not to let lightning strike thrice.

But Ginebra is just as determined to win it all. Coach Tim Cone, a two-time Grand Slam winner, isn’t used to losing. The last Ginebra title came in the 2018 Commissioner’s Cup and Cone is out for championship No. 22. Cone has won eight Governors Cup crowns, four with San Mig Coffee, two with Alaska and two with Ginebra. As a franchise, Ginebra hasn’t missed entering the playoffs since the 2005 Fiesta Conference so this is its 37th straight appearance.

In the last Governors Cup, both Ginebra and Meralco were eliminated in the semifinals. This conference marks their third finals encounter in the last four Governors Cups. Every battle has featured Cone and Black as opposing coaches and Durham and Justin Brownlee as opposing imports.

Brownlee is playing in his seventh PBA conference, all with Ginebra and has won three championships. He’s averaging 29 points with four triple doubles in 16 games. Among his teammates who weren’t with Ginebra in the two previous finals against Meralco are Stanley Pringle, Jeff Chan and Jared Dillinger. Returning are L. A. Tenorio, Scottie Thompson, Japeth Aguilar, Greg Slaughter, Aljon Mariano, Joe De Vance and Mark Caguioa. In their elimination round meeting this conference, Meralco crushed Ginebra, 101-77, last Nov. 3 as Durham outscored Brownlee, 39-18.  

If styles make fights, the outcome of the finals could be decided by which team is able to impose its way of play. Ginebra may choose to go big or small, depending on the matchups and has the option to run in the open court or execute in the half-court. Meralco likes to grind it out with Durham at the post and use backcourt size to smother smaller guards.

When it comes to offense, Ginebra is most dangerous. In 11 wins this conference, Ginebra has averaged 109.9 points while in five losses, only 95. Fueling Ginebra’s attack is its fluid teamwork, reflected in averaging 27.8 assists, tops in the league. Ginebra is also No. 1 in points in the paint, averaging 50.9. When it comes to defense, Meralco is unforgiving. In 12 wins this conference, the Bolts held opponents to only 86.3 points a game. Every Meralco win came with opponents limited to less than 100 points. But in five Bolts losses, opponents averaged 101.6, meaning the foundation for Meralco is defense.  

Depth is a factor that will play a critical role in a long series. Ginebra is averaging slightly more bench points, 26.4 to Meralco’s 24. Six Ginebra players are logging at least 20 minutes a game compared to five for Meralco. A deeper rotation will mean preserving key players for the homestretch. Health is an issue that could swing momentum so that a team with a more solid bench has the cushion to soften the impact of injuries.

For Ginebra, the X-factor could be Pringle who’s averaging 16.9 points. His ability to hit the long bomb or penetrate the interior will keep Meralco’s defense on edge. For Meralco, the X-factor could be Quinto who erupted for a career-high 19 points in the Game 5 clincher over TNT in the semis. The rookie from Letran is a tough defender at two or three and if he holds his own, could be the missing piece to solve the Ginebra puzzle.