Lame duck?

The president of the Philippines holds immense power, wielding even the ultimate power of the purse (with the executive being the fund disbursing authority), which often renders the House of Representatives a rubberstamp of Malacañang.

Even with the administration’s weak showing in the just concluded elections – a debacle, if you consider the administration sweeps in previous midterm polls – President Marcos can still inflict grievous wounds on his enemies.

He may be seen as a lame duck in terms of endorsing power for 2028. But his powers are not diminished until his final day in office. We saw this especially during the presidency of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

These include the president’s power to appoint (and disappoint), and to approve policies that allow him to influence the mobilization of huge amounts of private money to suit his purposes.

The battle lines were drawn during the midterm elections; Bongbong Marcos now has a clearer idea of who his enemies are, and who are potentially the biggest threats to his family.

Marcos advises people to never say never. It’s doubtful though that he will ever be forgiven by the Dutertes and their diehard supporters, the DDS, for putting the clan patriarch in prison in the Netherlands.

BBM may also be reviewing his ties with some of his appointees from the UniTeam days. Among them is his wife’s schoolmate, Solicitor General Menardo Guevarra, who recused the entire OSG from defending the arrest and turnover of Rodrigo Duterte to the Interpol and hence to the International Criminal Court.

Guevarra, Duterte’s last secretary of justice, did not resign over that controversy, and BBM, perhaps in a nod to his “commander-in-chief,” said he saw no need for the resignation.

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Before this controversy came up, the OSG had challenged the acquittal by a Muntinlupa Regional Trial Court of ML party-list congresswoman-elect Leila de Lima and her former driver Ronnie Dayan in one of the drug-related charges filed against her.

Yesterday, the Court of Appeals granted Guevarra’s petition for certiorari against the acquittal, which the CA said was based chiefly on the recantation of the prosecution witness, former corrections chief Rafael Ragos. The ruling effectively reopens the case.

The CA ruling came a day after De Lima, along with Akbayan party-list congressman-elect Chel Diokno, accepted the invitation of Speaker Martin Romualdez to join the House prosecution team in the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte.

Is De Lima an administration friend or foe? Is Guevarra?

At this point, BBM is expected to forge new alliances and weaken his enemies sufficiently to eliminate their chances of returning to power in 2028.

Although the Marcos and Duterte camps split the Senate race, with two traditional opposition members defying the surveys and barging into the top six, the ruling Lakas-CMD led by BBM’s favorite cousin still won 106 seats in the House of the Representatives, plus many of the local government posts.

With the resources at his disposal, how much damage can BBM do to his enemies?

The government can continue complying with the country’s obligations to the International Criminal Police Organization. This means handing over three to four more principal suspects to the Interpol upon the request of the International Criminal Court.

Among the likely ICC suspects, according to previous reports, are reelected Senators Ronald dela Rosa and Bong Go – the chief enforcer and alleged paymaster in Rodrigo Duterte’s war on drugs, respectively. Go has strongly denied the accusation.

Even if the Supreme Court rules that arrests through the Interpol must get the approval of a local court, the administration can easily find a sympathetic judge to give the green light ASAP in case the Interpol issues another classified “diffusion order” to carry out an ICC arrest.

Wealth-related probes may be initiated in Davao, and against staunch Duterte supporters based elsewhere – something that has in fact started against certain business interests identified with the DDS.

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The current biggest threat to the Marcoses, Vice President Sara, may survive an impeachment trial, given the results of the Senate race.

Senators, however, can behave like independent republics. Solid evidence and public opinion can make conviction possible.

If the VP deems that she is headed for conviction, she is expected to resign, sparing herself from permanent disqualification from public office.

By that time, she could be facing criminal complaints for plunder. If the new rules on speedy trial were applied and she is found guilty, final conviction may be handed down in time for her to be eliminated from the 2028 presidential race.

Also, as the VP herself has said, she might be included in the arrest orders of the ICC, having been the Davao City mayor during a period covered by the investigation on drug killings.

For Plan B, the emerging alternative is Bong Go.

If Go is spared from Interpol arrest and does not face a serious criminal complaint in the Philippines, he could be fielded as the DDS standard bearer in 2028. Except for Arroyo and Noli de Castro, however, topping the Senate race has failed to be a jump-off point for higher elective office.

The administration is disengaging Go from his selling point in the Senate race, the Malasakit centers, which are under the Assistance to Individuals in Crisis Situations or AICS administered by the Department of Social Welfare and Development.

With no one from the Marcos camp emerging as a strong contender in 2028, BBM can cultivate ties with alternatives to the possible DDS standard bearers – someone whose objective at least will not be the total political annihilation of the Marcos-Romualdez clan.