‘The right leader at the right time’

It seems like the Philippines will be sauntering forward (at the very least) and galloping (hopefully) in this Year of the Horse.

According to published reports, the Philippine economy grew 7.2 percent, the second fastest in Asia. The Philippines recorded the second biggest economic expansion in Asia with a growth of 6.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, bringing the year’s GDP to 7.2 percent, next to China’s 7.7  percent.

In a recent issue of Bloomberg Markets, which had a special report “Outlook 2014: Where to Invest,” the Philippines merited some good points, too!

The article, titled “Resilience,” written by William Mellor and Clarissa Batino, lauded President Aquino for his gains and stressed that he has to ensure that whoever will succeed him builds on, and not squanders those gains.

According to the Bloomberg Markets report, Aquino, who turns 54 this month, “has overseen a national resurgence beyond the reveries of most investors.”

The article begins by re-telling the story of Noynoy Aquino’s brush with death in the hands of rebel soldiers in 1987, and says that just as he was gifted with a second life, he has, “given the Philippines a second life of its own…”

The report didn’t dim the country’s fair-weather forecast because of typhoon Yolanda.

“Still reconstruction is within Aquino’s reach, HSBC Holdings Plc said in a Nov. 12 report. The bank said that while the typhoon may cut gross domestic product by as much as 1.4 percent in the short term, it won’t significantly slow the country’s economic momentum over time.”

The report said that the history of comparable disasters in the region shows that reconstruction can in fact boost growth.

“In 2012, Thailand’s economy rebounded 7.1 percent following floods that swamped thousands of factories and a vast strip of agricultural land the previous year. In 2005, the Indonesian economy grew to 5.6 percent from five percent the year before, when a tsunami claimed about 200,000 lives and devastated Aceh province.”

As I’ve written in this column before, this could be our finest hour yet. If we rebuild according to better standards and use the massive government and private sector aid pouring in for the victims,  we won’t only rise from the ashes. We will take off.

According to Bloomberg Markets, investors weren’t scared off by Yolanda.

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“Aquino has achieved this transformation by pruning a record $7-billion budget deficit in 2010 to 2.3 billion in the first nine months of 2013, declaring war on rampant corruption, announcing a $19-billion plan to shore up crumbling infrastructure and exploiting Filipinos English-language skills to promote industries as diverse as casinos and call centers,” Bloomberg Markets said.

It quoted Ruchir Sharma, New York-based head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management who oversees $25 billion, including Philippine shares, as saying: “It comes from having the right leader at the right time.”

The magazine acknowledged that the pork barrel scam “has wounded Aquino” and that with just over two years left in his term, “time is running short.”

It also quotes Edwin Gutierrez, a London-based Filipino American portfolio manager as saying that, “Filipinos may not be so fortunate with their next president, given their preference for personality rather than party driven politics.”

But President Aquino, in an interview with Bloomberg Markets,  doesn’t fear the prospect of who will succeed him — or not.

“It was fate. The people found me. I am sure they will be able to find another one out of 95 million,” he said.

But Bloomberg Markets takes a stand on that one.

“Leaving the choice to fate sounds risky in a country that has been so let down by leaders in the past. If Aquino is to make the most of his second life, he may have to play an active role in persuading Filipinos to elect someone who can build in his legacy.”

US envoy already ‘smitten’ by the Philippines Smitten.

US Ambassador Philip Goldberg said at a reception hosted by the Manila Overseas Press Club (MOPC) at the home of PeopleAsia publisher Babe Romualdez that many Americans and his predecessors have “fallen in love with the Philippines.”

Goldberg, who just presented his credentials to president Aquino last Dec. 2, 2013, said he was at the stage when he was already “smitten.”

In an interview with Starweek magazine, Goldberg also stressed that for an American Foreign Service officer, “an ambassador to the Philippines has and continues to be one of the great appointments.”

Goldberg, also found out during the reception that he has something in common with another of MOPC’s special guests that night, Sen. Grace Poe: They both studied in Boston. She at Boston College and the ambassador at Boston University.

With talks rife that US President Barack Obama will likely visit the Philippines in April at a crucial stage in geo-politics, Goldberg is going to have a major role in another milestone in Philippine-US ties. (You may e-mail me at [email protected].)