Post-impeachment political scenarios

The jury is still out. The defense has not yet presented its witnesses, much less offered its evidence, if any. But the Filipinos are known for their advanced thinking. Many have even pushed the name of Speaker Bodjie Dy to replace the vice president and a number of sectors are already celebrating imagined victories, fantasizing acquittal while others are imagining concocted convictions.

Thus, a number of scenarios are like windmills in the minds of many pundits trying to intersect and collide with each other. I do not think it violates the sub judice rule if many Filipinos would create scenarios in their fertile imaginations. The freedom to think is absolute and no court could gag the limitless flights of fancy and creativity among the more imaginative and creative Pinoy minds.

Let us call the first scenario the Luistro-Kapunan endgame scenario, one of conviction by not only 14 but 16 or even 17 votes. The second scenario is the more conservative Lacson-Sotto conservative ending, conviction by 14 votes. The third scenario is the Sison-poa strategic acquittal scenario with 10 or even 11 voting for acquittal. And lastly, the Bong Go-Robin gambit of acquittal due to less than 16 for conviction similar to the Lacson-Sotto scenario.

I will not name names but all possibilities are being considered. It is possible that one senator who has been hiding may run again and stumble in the stairs and rush to cast his vote for acquittal. It is possible that the Sandiganbayan grants a temporary reprieve to two detained senators just to exercise their voting right. A female senator from Europe may surface totally healed from her lung problems to vote unexpectedly for the side never thought of by her allies.

In the event that the vice president is convicted and thus impeached, one of the accessory penalties would be perpetual disqualification from running for public office. With that eventuality, she could not even run for barangay captain in any village in Davao. She cannot even be appointed to any government office. And an impeachment conviction cannot be obliterated by an appeal to the Supreme Court, nor erased by a presidential pardon.

On the other hand, if and when the vice president is acquitted, her 2028 presidential candidacy would practically be in the bag. The Filipinos have a culture called bandwagon mentality and most of the fence-sitters would join the DDS and ride on the bandwagon of the most probable winner. These characters in the likes of Bong Go, Bato de la Rosa, Rodante Marcoleta, and Robinhood Padilla shall dominate the political landscape. And the Cayetanos shall be on the top of the heap.

When the Dutertes will be in Malacañang again, the Marcoses and the Romualdez clans shall disappear from the face of the Philippines. They will be living a life of royal comforts in their mansions and castles in Switzerland and Austria. The only Marcoses to be left behind are the scions of Imee Marcos, the Manotocs. They will flourish and prosper under the grace of the Dutertes. The Villars, the Gatchalians, the Ejercitos, and the Estradas, being the perennial turncoats, will dance to the music of the DDS.

In Cebu, Christina Frasco and her husband, together with Gwen Garcia will most probably run to the embraces of Inday Sara. The Garcias, unlike their iconic patriarchs Noy Pabling and Noy Jesus, would ally themselves with whoever is in the Palace. The politics of the Garcias, just like the politics of almost all the Cebu trapos today are not anchored on principles or ideologies. Their politics is almost always planted on expediency and political survival.

Unlike the times of Don Sergio Osmeña Sr. when he was a Nacionalista from crib to grave, the Cebu politicians today are all political butterflies. Serging Osmeña Jr. remained loyal to his party whether winning or losing. The bottom line is: the result of the impeachment will determine the political landscape in Cebu.

There is no political leader in Cebu today who can hold a candle to the stature of Don Sergio or of Noy Pabling Garcia and Noy Jesus Garcia. The trapos we have today are not leaders. They are simply politicians who make politics their business and source of livelihood. Don Sergio did not need money from the government. He was richer than the government.