Ten years after our victory in having our maritime entitlements defined in the West Philippine Sea, we have strengthened external defense, but are still far from attaining credible self-defense capability.
For deterrence against China’s expansive maritime claims, our country has gained the support of many in the international community, among them the European Union and the Group of Seven industrialized nations.
Meanwhile, in those 10 years, China has developed military capability strong enough to challenge the world’s lone superpower.
It has also developed military outposts on the artificial islands it has created across the South China Sea, sufficiently enough to now push for the status quo under a binding Code of Conduct in the SCS, which will effectively legitimize its island-building.
China largely exercises effective control over what the Permanent Court of Arbitration had ruled to be a common fishing ground, Panatag or Scarborough Shoal. Beijing has defied the PCA ruling that its barring of Filipino fishermen from the shoal is illegal.
As the 10th anniversary of the arbitral ruling on July 12 approached, Beijing’s mouthpiece the Global Times published a report on a symposium wherein Chinese scholars cited anthropological studies to argue that Batanes is actually part of China through what it considers as its renegade province, Taiwan.
The float of this idea was apparently triggered by the delimitation talks between the Philippines and Japan, which include Batanes. This was on top of growing international support for Taiwan against a possible Chinese invasion for forcible reunification.
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Even if all the crooks in our government returned the trillions they have looted from public coffers, we can never match the military capability of the world’s second largest economy and emergent superpower, to compel compliance with the PCA ruling.
But we can be more assertive in deterrence, the way the Indonesians and Vietnamese have done in dealing with Chinese incursions into their waters.
Our government, working with civil society, can continue sponsoring international discussions on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), freedom of navigation and rules governing continental shelfs.
Enforcing a rules-based international maritime order becomes more important as we see Iran claiming full control over the Strait of Hormuz, which it shares with Oman and the United Arab Emirates. What gives Iran the sole right to control the strategic strait, and use it for global extortion?
Iran has not ratified UNCLOS and goes by the law of the jungle when it comes to such matters.
Yesterday, 13 countries plus the Philippines issued a joint statement of support for the Arbitral Award. Released by the US State Department, the statement reaffirmed support for the PCA ruling, calling it “final, legally binding” and declaring that “there is no legal basis for China’s expansive maritime claims in the (SCS), including those based on ‘historic rights.’ ”
The statement was released jointly with the Philippines by the governments of the US, Australia, Canada, Estonia, Germany, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, New Zealand, Romania, Slovenia and the UK.
Such statements are always much appreciated, but we would also welcome efforts by these supportive governments, such as through economic measures, to encourage compliance by China with the PCA ruling.
China became the second largest economy by opening its market to the world and playing by international rules of trade. But several of its trading partners such as Australia have complained that China has used its economic clout for geopolitical pressure.
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Rising unemployment and a slowing economy indicate that China is starting to feel the impact of global pushback against such economic coercion. Governments are moving to decouple from the Chinese market while private investors are also decamping and moving to countries such as Vietnam and India (sadly, we’re losing out on this competition for relocators).
Beijing has also been unwilling or unable to see the negative optics in its Goliath-versus-David maneuvers against the Philippines in the South China Sea.
Coming from the country in this region with the largest land area, the strongest economy and most powerful military, the expansive maritime claim smacks of sheer greed, and reinforces China’s image as a regional bully.
It’s similar to its avaricious claim over nearly the entire South China Sea. The SCS laps at the shores of several countries. What gives China the right to claim this sea as its own? Our land masses all popped up at the same time on this planet. What if we, or Vietnam or Indonesia, also lay claim to the entire SCS, all the way to Hainan?
China has shown sensitivity to global opinion. It can’t afford to lose its trading partners; its like-minded allies Russia, North Korea and Iran, all of which are dealing with serious problems of their own, can’t pick up the slack.
No one is aiming for a shooting war where everyone loses, as we are seeing yet again in Donald Trump’s very own “forever war” in Iran.
We can only afford asymmetrical warfare against Asia’s giant. But it can be backed by economic measures from all those issuing statements of support for the arbitral ruling.
The Arbitral Award was just the first step in the peaceful resolution of a maritime issue. Enforcing compliance is the next challenge.
What is happening in the South China Sea is a test of international rules on freedom of navigation and overflight, and a rejection of the idea that might makes right. The next 10 years should show progress in these areas.