The Philippines in a new world order

We are understandably focused on Philippine politics these days. A lot of attention is now on the ongoing impeachment trial of Vice President Duterte. My own initial impression is that the legal team of the prosecution panel seems more credible and better versed in the law than the legal panel of the Vice President.

However, the Philippines is still deeply affected by what is going on in the international environment. The government must not totally forget the world order and how the Philippines will be involved.

In an essay written early this year, the president of Finland Alexander Stubb wrote: “The Global South will decide whether geopolitics in the next era leans toward cooperation, fragmentation or domination… This is the last chance for Western countries to convince the rest of the world that they are capable of dialogue rather than monologue.”

The world in geopolitical terms is divided into three global coalitions. The Global West is led by the United States, European Union and Japan. The Global East is led by China and Russia. The Global South is led by countries such as India, Saudi Arabia and South Africa. The countries of the Global South do not all share the dominant Western perspectives about world order. However, the sad truth is that the West does not seem to be willing to listen to the Global South.

Consider, for instance, the war in Ukraine. Many countries in the Global South have condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Yet, when Western governments impose sanctions on Russia, most other countries did not follow suit. Instead, they maintained normal relations with Russia. The Philippines has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, our President has recently made overtures for a normalization of relations with Russia.

The European Union has also mismanaged its relations with Russia. Instead of isolating Russia, the EU has isolated itself from both the Global South and from Trump’s United States.

The Western world must also accept that there is a change in the economic balance of power in the world. In the year 2000, the combined GDP of the EU countries was roughly seven times as big as China’s GDP. Now, in 2026, both are about the same size. By the year 2050, the GDP of EU is estimated to be half the size of China’s.

The EU leaders defend their actions by invoking their moral commitments to democracy and human rights in the face of an authoritarian China. But the history of China shows that Chinese people have thrived when they had a strong, effective central government. Today, the Chinese Communist Party, despite some internal problems, enjoy a great deal of respect and legitimacy in the eyes of the Chinese people and in many countries of the Global South.

Finland President Stubb wrote: “Governments of the Global West can maintain their faith in democracy and markets without insisting they are universally applicable; in other places, different models may prevail… A rules-based world order underpinned by a set of well functioning international institutions that enshrine fundamental values remains the best way to prevent competition leading to collision.”

I agree that it would be in the best interest of the Philippines to support multilateral institutions like the United Nations. I also agree with President Stubb that the Security Council in the United Nations needs to be reformed. There needs to be stronger representation from countries of the Global South. There must also be a limit to the use of the veto power by the five countries in the Security Council. The Philippines this year campaigned to be a member of the Security Council.  Unfortunately, we did not get the necessary votes.

The International Monetary Fund also needs to be reformed. The EU share of the global GDP has been reduced and yet its voting share in the IMF has remained the same as during the creation of this institution. The IMF has also never been headed by a non-European in its 80 years of existence.

Another recommendation of President Stubb is a wise one: “A new symmetry of power among the Global West, East and South would produce a rebalanced world order in which countries would deal with the most pressing global challenges through cooperation and dialogue among equals.”

While Trump remains president of the United States, the US will insist on going its own way. However, Trump will be replaced sooner or later and the US can go back to its old role of participating in the world order.

During his presidency of the ASEAN, our President Marcos Jr. can join in leading the effort to rebuild a global system of rules-based cooperation centered on the United Nations. He should take the initiative to call for these needed reforms since any global move towards global peace and prosperity must be centered on the United Nations.