What the presidential surveys tell us

The contours of the 2028 presidential race are beginning to take shape. They are seen in the methodical work of the country’s leading pollsters. When you look at the surveys analytically, they tell a story far more nuanced than simple popularity rankings.

This analysis is based on data drawn from three of the country’s most reputable pollsters: SWS, Pulse Asia and WR Numero.

SWS conducted only one presidential preference survey for 2028 and this was back in April 2023. Pulse Asia conducted two surveys, one in March 2024 and another in February-March 2026. Meanwhile, WR Numero conducted eight surveys spanning late 2023 through 2026.

Given their reputations and frequency of polls, we can consider SWS to be the starting point that captures voter preferences before they were shaped by events and shifting narratives. Pulse Asia functions as a benchmark pollster. Its surveys are infrequent, but when released, serve as authoritative checkpoints. WR Numero, in contrast, operates as a trend tracker, offering repeated measurements that allow us to observe movement, momentum and inflection points over time.

How did the candidates fare?

In the SWS survey of April 2023, Sara Duterte led by 28 percent, Raffy Tulfo was at 11 percent and Leni Robredo was at four percent.

The Pulse Asia survey of March 2024 showed a statistical dead heat between Raffy Tulfo (35 percent) and Sara Duterte (34 percent), with Leni Robredo trailing at 11 percent. Fast forward to the Feb. 27 to March 2, 2026 survey and the data reveal a more competitive situation in one-on-one races. Duterte and Tulfo tied at 46 percent in one scenario, while Duterte’s lead over Robredo narrowed to 51 percent versus 43 percent in another scenario.

As for the WR Numero surveys from December 2023 to March 2026, data show a clear tightening of the race. Duterte started strong at 36 percent in December 2023 but eased to the low-30s (30-32 percent) by March 2026, indicating a plateau. Tulfo slipped from 34 percent to the low-20s (20-22 percent), reflecting soft, fragmented support. Meanwhile, Robredo rose steadily from roughly 10-12 percent to 24-26 percent, emerging as a credible challenger. Notably, Bam Aquino showed steady gains from just three percent to 5-6 percent, signaling growing relevance within the reformist bloc.

Across all three pollsters, Duterte emerges as the early frontrunner. But by 2025 and notably into 2026, a pattern of decline has emerged. Pulse Asia’s recent data show a tight race in head-to-head matchups. WR Numero’s quarterly tracking reveals a gradual erosion of Duterte’s margins.

By contrast, Robredo’s trajectory is on a steady ascent. She begins in the low double digits but gradually builds momentum. WR Numero’s shows her consolidating support among urban voters, professionals and the youth. By 2026, Pulse Asia data confirm that she is no longer peripheral but a credible challenger, capable of beating Duterte in a one-on-one matchup. This, despite declaring her disinterest to run for the presidency.

Tulfo’s case is more complex. Early surveys position him as a co-frontrunner with Duterte. But over time, his numbers have become volatile. In multi-candidate scenarios, his support appears diluted – likely due to overlapping voter bases. In head-to-head matchups, however, he remains formidable, even capable of beating Duterte. His trajectory suggests a candidate with broad appeal, but whose support lacks consolidation.

Further down the field, Bam Aquino and Risa Hontiveros remain consistent but with limited presences. Their numbers hover in the low single digits, reflecting both a shared constituency with Robredo.

When we consider the trends from all three pollsters, we see the race shifting from Duterte’s dominance to tight competition. Duterte remains ahead, but no longer untouchable. The opposition (Robredo, Aquino and Hontiveros)’s vote is slowly and steadily expanding.

Still, a significant portion of the electorate remains undecided, 24 percent, says WR Numero. This suggest that the final outcome will hinge less on current standings and more on future consolidation.

Why Duterte’s trajectory is softening

Structural factors are converging. First, the continued revelations in the impeachment case strengthen the suspicion of runaway corruption and non-performance at the DepEd and the OVP. Second is the emergence of a new voter segment – more educated, more discerning and increasingly guided by values such as honesty, integrity and performance. This demographic shift is subtle but already made evident in the 2025 midterm elections.

Third is the well-established historical pattern. Early frontrunners rarely win. Early announcement of candidacies tends to invite scrutiny, which in turn leads to recalibration. And fourth is the absence of support from the Marcos administration. Institutional backing and machinery are decisive and these are absent in Duterte’s case.

Add to this the discernible shift away from right-leaning populist leaders. Political characters like Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, Viktor Orbán of Hungary and even US President Donald Trump have lost popularity.

The opposition rally

In contrast, Robredo’s appeal is rooted not in political machinery or populism but in credibility and honesty. Her post-vice presidential performance reinforces a narrative of competence and integrity – qualities that resonate with the emerging voter base. Her support is growing and consolidating.

If Robredo ultimately decides not to run, Bam Aquino becomes the logical successor to her political space. He shares the same reform-oriented platform, the same emphasis on good governance and the same appeal to urban, educated voters. The overlap between their constituencies is substantial, making vote transferability highly probable.

Ultimately, the question is not just who is leading at this very minute, but who will be relevant for the country’s needs come 2028.

The country’s challenges – a weakened economic under Marcos, unresolved corruption, education recovery, China’s  incursions – all require leadership grounded on competence, transparency and visionary strategy. In this context, candidates like Robredo, Aquino and Hontiveros represent a governing style that is more aligned with the nation’s needs. In this sense, the momentum is on their side.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan