Ceasefire

I went to bed on Tuesday night unsure of what state the world would be in when I woke up the next day, especially after US President Donald Trump had vowed that “a whole civilization will die tonight” – a blatant crime against humanity for sure.

You see, how the world spins these days depends on Trump’s mood.

There goes the supposed leader of the free world going down in historical infamy, and as a result earning many more names and monikers – an imperialist madman, tyrant, war criminal, unhinged leader and, more recently, a genocidal lunatic. If I may add, he may also be comparable in a sense to Shakespeare’s King Lear, whose descent into insanity stems from his irrational decisions and hubris.

And so it was with a big sigh of relief that I woke up to the news that a two-week ceasefire was in effect.

It’s a welcome development for sure but it doesn’t mean we can pop the champagne bottles already.

What does this ceasefire mean anyway?

The bottom line is that Iran has agreed to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks.

Newsweek reported that the ceasefire means the US would suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks, contingent on Tehran agreeing to the “complete, immediate and safe opening” of the strait.

“The announcement came just before a deadline Trump had set, threatening to destroy Iranian infrastructure if it remained closed. Iran said it formally accepted the conditions of the ceasefire. Iranian officials had previously rejected temporary pauses in fighting, saying they would only accept a permanent end to the war,” the report said.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said in a statement that the ceasefire does not signify the termination of the war.

Furthermore, Iran said: “Our hands remain upon the trigger, and should the slightest error be committed by the enemy, it shall be met with full force.”

The markets have reacted positively. with oil prices plunging below $100 per barrel.

What can the Philippines do?

With or without a ceasefire, the Philippines must provide immediate relief and work out long-term solutions.

The targeted ayuda for jeepney and tricycle drivers is just one measure but it’s just a palliative, if at all. The amount is too small for the drivers who are among the hardest hit by this energy crisis.

What could provide a bigger relief is the suspension of taxes on oil. That has not happened yet.

Many have raised concerns about the suspension of taxes, saying it would result in foregone revenues of more than P300 billion.

That is a fact. But it would be difficult for Filipinos to accept this, especially at a time when we’ve just found out that billions in taxpayers’ money are lost to corruption – up to P1 trillion if estimates are to be believed.

Because what this really means is that the government wants Filipinos to continue paying taxes – in these difficult times – but which may end up being stolen again anyway.

The disdain is real.

Thus, a government that has allowed such brazen thievery to happen in the last three years must first strive to resolve the problem it has long failed to address.

It must go after those guilty of the flood control scam, get back the funds they’ve stolen and use that to make up for the revenue that would be lost in the relief measures to be given to targeted sectors amid the crisis.

Long-term solutions

In the long run, the government must also work on having strategic oil reserves. Who knows when the next war will be?

As I said, how the world spins depends on the flow of chemicals in Trump’s brain.

Our vulnerability as an oil importing country is on supply, not on deregulation. Thus, those calling to repeal the oil deregulation law must be careful because if that happens, oil players will simply close shop. Nobody wants to sell at a loss.

As Seaoil Philippines CEO Glenn Yu said, “We should look to have our own strategic reserve or produce our own oil like our neighbors to prevent external shocks like this from hurting our economy.”

The ceasefire also does not mean things will get better overnight.

As former energy secretary Jericho Petilla said, pump prices will not go back to their pre-war levels just yet, if at all, because many of the energy infrastructure facilities in the Middle East have been affected.

And so we must brace ourselves for more difficult times ahead.

While the ceasefire is very much welcome and we’re all hoping it would finally lead to the end of the war, things will get worse before they get better.

Note that the country’s inflation has already risen to 4.1 percent in March, its highest level in 20 months, no thanks to the conflict which, although miles away, has affected us badly.

Overall inflation in March accelerated from the previous month’s 2.4 percent and March 2025’s 1.8 percent.

It was also the highest rate of increase since inflation reached 4.4 percent in July 2024.

The uptrend was primarily driven by the transport commodity group covering diesel and gasoline, which rose to 9.9 percent from a 0.3 percent decline in the previous month, as The STAR reported.

As I said, things will get worse before they improve.

But for now, I’ll take the ceasefire for what it is and keep my fingers crossed that it holds.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow her on X 
@eyesgonzales. Column archives at EyesWideOpen on FB.