Reality check

After a much applauded dramatic start, it looks like the anti-corruption crackdown is sputtering in a reality check, and President Marcos is fumbling for a way to dial down his reformist zeal without losing his credibility (and his relatives).

Let’s see... there’s still a week left for the government to make good on its promise to put big fish in jail before Christmas, in connection with the flood control mess.

No happy Christmas for them, BBM himself vowed, with Public Works Secretary Vince Dizon echoing the same promise. Let’s hope it won’t turn out to be OPM, oh promise me, in the same league as the “aspiration” for P20-a-kilo rice (not subsidized, but real market price).

Walk-in NBI detainee Sarah Discaya and her husband Curlee (in Senate custody) plus a smattering of public works engineers sacked or “floating” won’t cut it; people are screaming for blood – of lawmakers no less.

The public has been made to expect that among those to be arrested are Benguet Rep. Eric Yap and former senator Bong Revilla. Whether sitting senators Jinggoy Estrada and Joel Villanueva will be included remains to be seen.

What about resigned Ako Bicol party-list congressman Elizaldy Co? He has not made good on his threat to release more supposedly tell-all videos against the ruling clan, and his trail has gone cold, after those reports that he was in Portugal.

Last week rumors spread that Co was already in custody, presumably courtesy of Interpol, and would soon be popping up in Manila. But another speculation is that he will be MIA, missing in action, like the mysterious ex-Marine sergeant Orly Guteza.

After hurling explosive accusations, Guteza, who describes himself as a security consultant to many, may soon be officially classified as a desaparecido.

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Meanwhile, even with the nation watching closely, members of the 20th Congress are scrambling to preserve their personal endorsement power over billions in various types of “soft pork” dole-out programs.

The bicameral conference doubled or tripled the funds proposed in the executive’s National Expenditure Program for the Medical Assistance to Indigent and Financially Incapacitated Patients, the health pork barrel known as MAIFIP, as well as the funding for the Assistance to Individuals in Crisis Situations.

AICS is the tax-funded treasure chest from which politicians draw their generous “donations” to constituents for all sorts of spending needs including “KBL” – kasal binyag libing or weddings, baptisms and funerals.

That grand funeral wreath, that wedding pakimkim from your helpful lawmaker “na madaling lapitan”? That’s where your taxes go.

Senate President Pro Tempore Panfilo Lacson, the long-time budget watchdog, vows that safeguards are in place to prevent the misuse of MAIFIP, AICS, et al, for political epal or patronage purposes. But I’ll believe this when I see it.

There’s restiveness in the political establishment these days. They’ve lost their kickback-enabling insertions in the budget, much of their unprogrammed appropriations, their confidential funds and the Ayuda para sa Kapos ang Kita or AKAP, now defunded.

What can they now abuse to dole out favors and buy loyalty at taxpayers’ expense? They might soon (que horror) join the ranks of regular government employees such as teachers and health professionals who are overworked and underpaid, including those with PhDs.

We’re now seeing funding for the “soft” pork barrel – politicized aid programs – growing by leaps and bounds, with the de-politicized versions pushed down in budget priorities.

The buzz at the Senate is that the head of the House contingent in the bicam, appropriations committee chair Mikaela Suansing, has been under tremendous pressure from her super majority colleagues to shepherd the “soft pork” through the General Appropriations Bill.

Administration opponents believe the soft pork will be rammed through in the supposedly cleanest national budget ever, even if it will cast dark clouds over the sincerity of the anti-corruption campaign.

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The soft pork will ensure that Malacañang can still hold lawmakers by their family jewels.

How will this be done? By controlling the release of the soft pork funds. The executive wields the ultimate power of the purse. Projects earmarked for funding by lawmakers can be marked “for later release” by the Department of Budget and Management (DBM).

For administration opponents, FLR or for later release can mean no release.

BBM’s estranged non-sister, Sen. Imee Marcos, says all fund releases she has requested have been held in abeyance or FLR by the DBM since 2023. This has also happened, she says, to pro-Duterte senators Bato dela Rosa and Bong Go.

The Duterte camp believes the soft pork will be used to support another impeachment effort against Vice President Sara Duterte. The camp suspects that even the possible arrest of several minority senators may be used as a bargaining chip for VP Impeachment 2.0.

Horse-trading in the budget process indicates that BBM is now balancing his anti-corruption crackdown with his post-2028 political and family fortunes. Between personal and national survival, we can guess which one will prevail.

A Sara Duterte presidency will be BBM’s worst nightmare. With his favorite cousin no longer in the running, it makes sense for BBM to look for a winnable non-relative he can “anoint” as successor.

At this point, speculation is focused on public works chief Vince Dizon. According to the Marites grapevine, four groups of communications strategists have been enlisted, among them David Bluestone, said to be the managing director of a San Francisco-based firm, to project “Sec Vince” as a 2028 “presidentiable.”

Also being reportedly eyed are Sen. Panfilo Lacson, although he may be too uncompromising for BBM, as well as Sen. Sherwin Gatchalian, who could be tainted by the soft pork issue.

Meanwhile, among the perceived wannabes, or wish ko lang maging president, are the current little president, Ralph Recto, and Sen. Bam Aquino, who is positioning himself as a friend to all the warring camps.

Whoever BBM picks will need a support base beyond the Solid North that will stand a chance against the feared Duterte juggernaut.

For this, they probably think they will need “pork,” both hard and soft, and the dynasties’ support.

And there go the reforms.