Fate of Taiwan and the Philippines intertwined

There is a proposal that Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines should be considered as a single theater of war. These four countries are at the frontline of the impending conflict with China. It is clear that the fate of Taiwan and the Philippines is intertwined. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would confront the Philippines with one of its gravest foreign policy decisions. Letting Taiwan fall to Beijing would create a tremendous challenge for the Philippines. If Taiwan falls, the Philippines could well be the next victim in this conflict.

The major question in this possible invasion would be the reaction of the United States. During his campaign, Donald Trump said that if China invades Taiwan, the United States should bomb Beijing. However, since his election, Trump has been more focused on Europe and the Middle East.

My own analysis is there is no immediate threat of an invasion of Taiwan. China is undergoing internal economic problems and an invasion, even if successful, would be a tremendous drain on China’s resources. However, countries threatened by China’s rise, like the Philippines, need to invest in security measures, no matter what happens in and around Taiwan.

Taiwan has been preparing for a potential China invasion. It has spent a significant share of its resources on advanced equipment like F-16 fighter jets, Abrams tanks and submarines. Its defense strategy, it seems, would be to prevent China from quickly seizing the island. By dragging the Chinese Army into a long and costly war, the strategy seems to eventually force China to seek a political settlement.

The United States has also been pressuring Taiwan to increase its level of expenditure on defense to at least four percent of its GDP.

While Taiwan strives to be as self-reliant as possible, the United States may still need the capability to replenish Taiwan’s military stockpile during a potential Chinese blockade or even during an invasion. Washington obviously will be very reluctant to bring US forces into the conflict.

At this time, the United States seems to be expanding plans to stockpile military equipment at facilities near Taiwan, including the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Guam and the Marshall Islands.

The balance of power in Asia will be affected by any change on control of Taiwan. Right now, the United States should also focus on strengthening its ties with the major centers of economic and military power such as Japan, India, Korea, and countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines which are located on the sea-lanes, through which the United States gains commercial and military access to the region. Even European nations appreciate this and have begun to make their presence felt in these sea-lanes in the recent past.

Under the Biden administration, US efforts to strengthen allied militaries have emphasized Taiwan-related scenarios. In the Philippines, the United States invested in defense infrastructure in Luzon, the main territory closest to Taiwan, where it seems the United States intends to base missiles and personnel in the event of a conflict.

However, the Philippines needs to better protect its bases and airfields all over the Philippine archipelago. Recently, there was news that a Chinese vessel was seen sailing past Mindoro. This has indicated that the Chinese navy and military are prepared to penetrate even the interior territory of our country.

Philippine foreign policy must begin to prepare for a possible scenario of an invasion of Taiwan and the United States decides not to intervene. The immediate problem in such a scenario, would be how to evacuate the Filipino overseas workers in Taiwan. If the United States refuses to intervene, then the Philippines will of course have no choice but to avoid getting involved in the conflict. The possible scenario is that if the invasion is successful, the cost will be so high to the Chinese economy and to the military and naval assets of China that China will be in no position to undertake further military adventurism for the next decade or so.

When is an invasion of Taiwan by China possible? I can think of three conditions under which this can happen. The first is that China believes that Taiwan is preparing to declare independence. The second is that the Chinese economy has recovered and is again prepared to challenge the West. The third is that Xi Jinping believes that Donald Trump will not intervene if China decides to invade Taiwan.

From a purely economic point of view, China does not seem to have any substantial reason for invading Taiwan. A war between the two states would leave Taiwan an economic disaster and would therefore not add to the economic wealth of China. It would also take China years to build the infrastructure needed to use Taiwan as a base for military operation. This would mean that even if Taiwan falls, there would be no immediate threat to an invasion of the Philippines and Japan.

Countries threatened by China must however continue to invest in security measures no matter what happens in and around Taiwan.

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