2023: Threats of tumult and turbulence

There are clouds of doom and gloom hovering in the horizon. The world is facing various potentials for tumult and turbulence this year, depending on the behavior of China, Russia, US, and North Korea. The world peace depends on four men: Xi Jinping of China, Vladimir Putin of Russia, Kim Jong Un of North Korea, and Joe Biden of the USA. These four men hold the key to either world peace or nuclear annihilation.

China's constant provocations and the US corresponding posturing in the Asia-Pacific region are creating tensions that endanger peace and security in the region. Russia's protracted war of aggression against Ukraine continues to derail the global supply chain for food and oil. And North Korea's reckless braggadocio on its recent nuclear capability is posing grave and imminent danger to the region and to the world. These continuing threats to world peace are exacerbated by pockets of ongoing and potential troubles in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and in some areas in Asia.

Terrorisms and cross-border crimes continue to pose dangers to peace and stability in all the regions of the world. There internal intramurals too and social, economic, and political conflicts. Some elections in many countries may also impact the prospects for peace.

In Asia, India, Cambodia, and Thailand are both facing crucial elections in 2023. In Thailand, the political forces of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra are mounting a huge comeback offensive that can bring some tempests in Thai politics. Thaksin's daughter Paetongtarn is being pushed to lead a massive political campaign against the incumbents. Malaysia continues to walk on a tightrope, as the newly-installed government led by a shaky coalition of multiple parties, headed by Anwar Ibrahim faces constant challenges from spiteful rivals. Indonesia is also facing a major political confrontasi in 2024. The nominations are going to be completed by October this year. Serious candidates may include Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto.

In Europe, incumbent heads of governments are struggling to retain their seats as elections are scheduled this year. There will be crucial political fights in Poland, Spain, Turkey, Greece, and Estonia. Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey is facing major oppositions but he is most likely to be reelected in the June presidential polls there. In the Americas, there elections coming this year in Canada, Antigua Barbados, Cuba, Paraguay, Guatemala, and Argentina. In Africa, there will be highly-contested elections in Nigeria on February 25, in Guinea-Bissau on June 4, in Sierra Leone also in June this year, a general election also in Zimbabwe in the second half of this year, also in Liberia, Madagascar, and in Democratic Republic of Congo on December 20, 2023.

The world is watching closely the Russia-Ukraine war and its continuing impact on the global economy, especially on two of the most essential needs of humanity; food and oil. The global inflation and the impending worldwide recession are also poised to bring much suffering to more than half of the world’s population, especially in Africa and Asia and in the poorer economies in Latin America. The highly delicate US-China relations are also affecting negatively on the economic and social horizons in the Asia-Pacific basin. The disruptions of the world's supply chain by a series of natural disasters brought about by the worsening climate change shall further exacerbate the gloom and doom in 2023. The resurgence of viruses and their many variants constitute other worrisome threats to peoples and nations.

One salient observation we can make is that global alliances and international associations are becoming less effective in their interventions to mitigate all these prospects for tumult and turbulence. Putin, Xi, and Kim are not listening to the UN and are not afraid of the NATO and the EU anymore. We should all brace for more troubles and attendant difficulties this year. 2023 appears to become worse than 2022. I can humor you with lies and tell you about wines and roses. But the truth is that we are facing a food crisis, worsening of terrorism, more natural disasters, and a resurgence of health crises.

Behold the four horsemen of the apocalypse. Heaven forbid, I keep my fingers crossed.