Are we seeing the emergence of a new world order? This is the most intriguing question that those interested in geopolitics and global economics are pondering. After the end of the second world war, we saw the rise of two global superpowers. One was the United States leading the nations and societies that believed in liberal democracy. The second one was Russia or, at that time, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) leading the communist and totalitarian states. There were attempts to set up a third group of non-aligned nations and among its leading figures were Zhou Enlai of China, Jawaharlal Nehru of India and Sukarno of Indonesia.
The Cold War, however, was principally a struggle between the democratic forces of the West and the communist forces led by the Soviet Union. Eventually, Mao Zedong brought China into a close alliance with Russia and the so-called nonaligned federation simply disappeared.
In 1991, the communist regime in the USSR collapsed, which supposedly brought an end to the Cold War. The USSR also virtually disappeared from the global map as the other countries that composed this union declared their independence. This was when Ukraine was able to declare independence when it broke away from the USSR. Russia became the only survivor and the hope was that it would become a liberal democratic country. However, 22 years ago, Vladimir Putin took power and restored authoritarianism in Russia. This started a new Cold War.
The common assumption was that Russia did not have the military power nor the economic strength to compete against the United States and its allies in western Europe. It was therefore surprising that Russia invaded Ukraine early this year in an attempt to restore its old power. The war in Ukraine, however, has shown that Russia is not a serious contender for the status of a superpower anymore. Its armed forces expected a quick and easy victory, but the Ukrainian forces have been able to stop the Russian invasion and have begun to regain their territory.
Russia is now considered a rogue state, isolated from the rest of the world. When a motion was made at the UN General Assembly to condemn the Russian invasion, only four states voted against it: Russia, Belarus, North Korea and Nicaragua. Most countries, fearing that a Russian success would encourage invasions and threats to their own sovereignty, voted to support the motion. Even some countries considered as Russian allies, like China, decided to abstain.
But the threat of a new world order continues to be a possibility, a possibility that is led by China.
The People’s Congress of the Communist Party of China has ended. It elected Xi Jinping as the new head for a third term, which is unprecedented because the last person to have more than two five-year terms was Mao Zedong. Even Deng Xiaoping had only two five-year terms.
In his two-hour acceptance speech, Xi outlined what is essentially a continuity of his plans and policies during his first two terms. It seems clear to me that the Chinese Communist Party has no intention of liberalizing Chinese politics and will remain as the sole governing political party in China.
The early steps towards a more liberal regime taken by Deng have been drastically altered by Xi Jinping. Some observers believe that his goal is to be the next Mao Zedong of China, who was hero-worshipped like a demigod. Xi has constantly preached that authoritarianism is a superior model in ruling a country compared to liberal democracy.
Xi therefore aims to retain the monopolistic political power and has already begun to involve the Party in the running of the major businesses in China. This is one reason why prominent Chinese business leaders with worldwide reputations have remained quiet and disappeared from public view, like Jack Ma. The problem with his goal of monopolizing power in all aspects of Chinese life – political, economic, cultural, military – is that he must maintain the perception and image that the decisions of the Party can never be wrong. It has been suggested that this is the reason why Xi continues to have a zero-COVID policy which has resulted in severe lockdowns that have plagued the Chinese economy and society till the present. While the rest of the world is beginning to loosen pandemic restrictions, China still continues to impose citywide lockdowns.
It should be remembered that during the pandemic, Xi kept repeating that the best method of combatting the coronavirus epidemic was through severe lockdowns.
If China now admits that a zero-COVID policy cannot succeed, this will be considered as a major failure of authoritarianism as a method of governance.
China seeks a world order that will defer to the states and their rulers. This means that China will be allowed to establish the kind of governance it desires without interference from liberal democracies and calls for human rights from other countries.
The pandemic resulted in an economic downturn for the entire world. It seems that there is no escaping a global recession sometime next year. Since China is dependent on the global economy for its own economic growth, a global recession will have a major negative impact on the Chinese economy. The population of China has been relatively submissive to the Communist Party in the past decades because it has brought economic prosperity for everyone in China. With the possibility of a recession, it is believed that Xi and the Communist Party will lose an appeal to Chinese nationalism to mitigate any discontent. This will raise the possibility of a frontal confrontation with other countries.