It will be Gwen, Junjun, and Mike again, but no BBM

Cebu is ready for Leni Robredo and Tito Sotto but is not prepared to change horses in midstream at the local level. Governor Gwen Garcia will win but with a smaller edge over Ace than when she defeated Agnes Magpale. Junjun Davide will get 80 to 85 percent of the votes.Gwen really loves Davide and shows it by naming a token team mate. Mike will win too but by not more than 20,000 votes plurality. And Mike's two bets for congress are gasping for breath, especially in the north.

Governor Gwen Garcia will win big in the first district. The cities of Talisay, Naga and Carcar plus the big towns of Minglanilla, San Fernando and Sibonga have a total of 460,000 votes. Gwen will get 65 percent of that. The second district has 180,000 votes and it will give Davide 90 to 95 percent and Garcia will defeat Durano by 65 to 35percent. The third district, led by deputy speaker PJ Garcia, has 380,000 votes and will deliver to Manang Gwen no less than 250,000. The fourth district, with 300,000 votes, led by the Salimbangons and balanced by the Martinez clan, will give Gwen no less than 190,000 votes. Gwen will carry the fourth too despite Bogo and Bantayan's leaning towards Ace.

Gwen should expect the Duranos to have their revenge for the 2016 defeat. And so, 385,000 votes there will be dominated by Ace, in the likely proportion of 63 percent for Durano and only 37 for Gwen. But the sixth including Mandaue, with One Cebu secretary general, Lollipops Ouano-Dizon, may give Gwen 70 percent of the votes. The seventh district, now under the exclusive control of the Garcias, in alliance with Congressman Peter John Durano Calderon, may give Gwen 90 percent of its 170,000 votes. But if blood is thicker than water, Calderon may secretly deliver victory for Ace. But, as a native of this district, I can say that the name of Durano is like the name of Marcos there. These names are very hard to sell in the south.

Junjun Davide will win in all the seven districts, including in all component cities of Talisay, Naga, Carcar, Toledo, Bogo, Danao, and in all towns. His opponent (what's her name?) will not win in even one town in the whole province of Cebu. Well, I heard that she is a very nice person, a very professional medical practitioner. But politics is politics. In Cebu and in the Philippines, branding is very important. The brand of Davide is associated with integrity, fairness, justice, reason and compassion. It is very, very hard to defeat Davide as of now. He is so good, so humble, so nice and so low-key, unassuming and is the complete opposite of the governor when it comes to aggressiveness, dynamism and passion.

If Leni wins in Cebu, and I am very sure of that, it will be largely due to the silent, persistent and determined campaign of Junjun Davide. The Cebuanos still love Gwen, most of us, anyway. But Gwen is committing again another faux pas of supporting Marcos, who was criticized by her late father, Noy Pabling. In 2016, she made the mistake of supporting Binay (my God, of all people), then shifted to Duterte in the last two minutes. But Davide, from the very start until the end is for Leni. If Ace supports Leni, Marcos will be buried in both the south (thanks to Davide) and in the north (courtesy of the Duranos).

And, mark my words, if Ace persists in supporting Marcos, then both of them, Marcos and Durano will see after May 9, how the Cebuanos will continue to stand against people who are identified with Martial Law, dictatorship, oppression, persecution of enemies and many controversies in elections and governance. By the way, Mike will win too but his votes will be lesser because of his support for a very unworthy Marcos. Supporting Marcos is like dancing with the next dictator. Supporting whom President Duterte called a very, very weak leader.  It is like playing with fire. too risky for Mike and Gwen. They will see that on May 9.