Over nearly two years, we have put in much energy and expended a great sum fighting back a pandemic. Until early this week, we were showing great progress.
Then something changed. Infections began spreading at an explosive rate.
On Dec. 27, there were 318 new infections. On Dec. 28, that rose to 421. On Dec. 29, that suddenly jumped to 889. The next day, 1,623 new cases were found. This looks suspiciously like the exponential surges driven by the Omicron variant in the US and Europe.
Should a surge happen here over the next few weeks, the market will respond accordingly. Stocks will fall. Investment decisions will be delayed. Hiring will be frozen.
We were trying to roll a large rock up a slope. With a new surge, that rock rolls back down to the bottom.
2021 was not the happiest of years.
We entered the old year in the shadows of a relentless pandemic and a shrinking national economy. Those are linked but distinct challenges.
The economy was in retreat because of mobility restrictions to protect public health. Shops were closed. Businesses went bankrupt. People were unemployed.
Add to those internal dynamics that fact that the rest of the world was shrinking as well. Our export markets were cut off. Supply chains were broken. Tourism was wiped out. Our service sector was frozen.
All of 2021 was spent containing the infections so that the economy could breathe. New credit programs were opened by government to save our small enterprises and preserve jobs. We did the best we could to prevent deep scarring of the domestic economy.
We were successful to an extent. By the second quarter, the economy moved out of recession and struggled to grow. By the third quarter, the economy showed definite signs of strength, growing by over 11 percent. In the fourth quarter, we expect to hit 7 percent growth. Our enterprises were adapting well to the new normal.
Our entrepreneurs were bullish. Investment growth was substantial. There was progress in cutting down unemployment, the principal means for reducing the volume of poverty.
All these happened while the country endured a brutal third wave of infections, driven by the deadly Delta variant. Infection and hospitalization rates tested our health system severely. But vaccines were beginning to arrive. This was our most potent weapon to keep the pandemic at bay.
We are not going to meet our vaccination targets. But a majority of the adult population received vaccines. We have more in our stockpile than what we actually need, unless we mandate third and fourth doses. Our 2022 national budget is ready for that.
By November, our infection numbers were clearly in decline. We looked forward to fully opening the domestic economy in the first quarter of 2022.
By the first half of December, our public health efforts were clearly gaining ground. There was great confidence the pandemic could be defeated through public health protocols and massive vaccination.
Then the even more transmissible Omicron variant emerged in South Africa and rapidly swept through the US and Europe. This variant demonstrated explosive potential for mass infection.
The new variant, while over five times more transmissible than Delta, showed signs of being a little more benign. But then, this could be because the new variant was sweeping through societies with comparatively higher rates of vaccination. Vaccines, although they might not fully stop infection, prove to be effective in reducing severity of the disease.
Experts are telling us that Omicron would sooner or later hit our shores. The influx of Filipinos coming home for the holidays ensures that. Every public health precaution needed to be done.
This week, our health situation rapidly deteriorated from “very low risk” to “moderate risk” in the face of what seems to be a frightening surge in infections. Again, everybody seems on edge.
A few days before Christmas, Typhoon Odette slashed a path of devastation through Northern Mindanao and the Visayas. About half a million homes were damaged by its fury. Power outages and lack of fresh water sources kept life miserable for hundreds of thousands of Filipinos.
Omicron and Odette cast long shadows as we welcome the New Year. There is much to be done to contain new surges in infection. A whole-of-nation effort is required to rebuild the wide areas devastated by a deadly typhoon. These are great challenges.
While the path to a better year is not exactly clear, our people remain quite hopeful nevertheless. The latest SWS survey shows 93 percent of Filipinos hopeful about 2022.
In past crises, our strong sense of community carried us through difficulty. We have seen that sense of community in our long effort to contain infections. The same sense of community drove the overwhelming support now pouring into the areas devastated by Odette.
We need all the grit we could muster over the coming months as we strive to contain infections and rehabilitate the communities devastated by a deadly storm. Both tasks will require much hard work and unflinching determination.
It is an advantage that our sense of solidarity has always been stronger than the propensity of our politics to divide us. Let that sense of solidarity prevail in this New Year.
When the rock we are rolling up the slope slips and rolls back to the bottom, we take a deep breathe and restart the effort. The twin challenges of a public health crisis and a severe weather event will continue to bring out the best in us.
A Happy New Year to all!