If united, Opposition can gun for 51% majority

Their own voter-preference surveys show it. The combined ratings of Ping Lacson, Isko Moreno, Manny Pacquiao and Leni Robredo is about 42 percent.

Most voters have made up their minds for president in May 2022. Less than 18 percent remains undecided, but weighing two candidates.

The highest rater of the four has 20 percent, at best. In the unlikely chance that one of the four gets all the undecided votes, s/he would still lose. The three others will split the votes of the Opposition. None of them will make it. The administration frontrunner will win by wide plurality.

The only way for an Opposition victory is to unite. And the time for that is now, when they still have options. By next week the door will close. By next month, they would be too far gone to give way to one among them. They would have recruited campaigners on the ground and in social media, firmed up support from local leaders and spent much personal savings and early contributions.

Official campaign period starts February. At that point spending momentum will drive the candidates. More than half of campaign spending is on media and outdoor advertising; transportation, food, billeting for barnstorming and staff salaries. The balance goes to precinct poll watching, anti-cheating and legal services on Election Day.

By then, the four would have gone their separate ways to sure defeat. They will be remembered in history as the Fantasizing Four.

But if the four unite and convince at least half of the undecided, then the Opposition can win. And that would be by at least 51-percent majority. Their statisticians can factor in the trends of turnouts, no-shows due to vote buying and terrorism, command votes and early absentee ballots.

The country needs a majority president. We have not had one since the 1986 snap presidential election.

Election 2022 has been likened to the first presidential balloting after the war. Last year’s pandemic lockdowns shrank the GDP to minus 9.5 percent. Twenty-seven million lost their livelihoods. Three-and-a-half million families still suffer hunger. And as the invader 80 years ago plundered the country’s food and resources for the War machinery, today’s Filipino collaborators are surrendering the nation’s wealth to a new foreign aggressor. The people need a leader to rise from the ashes.

A majority president will have the political capital for major reforms. Philippine patrimonial assets handed over to cronies need to be recovered. Plunderers must be prosecuted. Vigilante murders must be stopped. Partisans inserted in the judiciary and constitutional commissions need neutralizing. Thieving political dynasties must be disbanded. Pandemic response should shift from brute force and vitriol to science-based solutions and mass communication. The Constitution can be improved.

Separate internal focused-group discussions of the four Opposition parties elicit similar responses. Voters want a president who is matalino, malinis and kaisa natin. The highest leader must have vision, courage to shun temptation and fire the corrupt around him/her and be one with the people.

Ping, Isko, Manny and Leni possess those traits. Certain urgent programs can be their bases of unity. Higher budgets for nutrition and education will physically and mentally strengthen the youth – no more revision of history. Restoration of decency will revitalize society – no more cussing of God, which only brings misfortune and calamities. Non-negotiable is the defense of Philippine territory and sovereign rights in the West Philippine Sea. Whoever emerges as the common choice, the three can monitor for compliance.

Unifying requires sacrifice. Salvador “Doy“ Laurel gave up his presidential ambition and hoisted Cory Aquino for president against the dictator Ferdinand Marcos in 1986. He heeded the counsel of Jaime Cardinal Sin and Doña Aurora Aquino, mother of slain democracy icon Ninoy Aquino. It wasn’t an easy decision for sure; his core group was livid yet he bore it. Doy is now etched in history as the fulcrum who made Cory rise and Marcos fall.

There may be no one to counsel Ping, Isko, Manny and Leni today. All we can depend on is their conscience and love of country.

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