Predicting the post-pandemic world

The regular meeting of the 20 wealthiest nations in the world, or G-20, has just ended in Rome. As has been predicted by almost all international geopolitical observers, it ended in a disappointment, especially for sectors that needed help. There were a lot of statements and promises that were mostly generalities.

The issue of climate change was the biggest topic that was supposed to be tackled. This G20 was supposed to be the prelude for more substantive matters in the COP26, the annual climate change UN summit. Instead, it showed the lack of enthusiastic support for real solutions to the ongoing climate disaster.

The best the group could do is for some nations to meet net zero emissions target by 2050. The worst thing is that there were not even offers of annual targets. It just seemed more convenient for nations to offer a target 30 years away which could be moved farther back anytime between now and 30 years from now.

In spite of this vagueness of targets, there were still countries that refused to join the agreement regarding the 2050 target. The most prominent country refusing to join was India who said, in effect, they could not guarantee they could meet the target. At least they were being honest. India, however, is the third largest polluter in the world.

During the past couple of weeks, my readings and researches have yielded nothing but negative news. There is the threat of conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan; the failure to reach concrete agreements on how to confront climate change; and the retreat of democracy all over the world. Then there is the ongoing global supply chain bottlenecks and its causal effect of global inflation.

The shortages from fuel to toys caused by supply bottlenecks have revealed how globalized this world has become. I have written articles on how globalization has caused the gap between the rich and the poor to widen even in the midst of the pandemic. Perhaps, globalization is inevitable. At least the United States is leading the move to mitigate some of the worst aspects of globalization. The agreement among the richest countries to charge a 15 percent minimum corporate tax should prevent companies from hiding their money in tax havens or moving their corporate headquarters, even in name, to the country offering the lowest tax.

By chance, I came across an article by Professor Harold James, Professor of International Affairs at Princeton University. The title of his article is “Globalization’s Coming Golden Age.”

I cannot review his entire article here. I will just focus on certain parts of his article that I found intriguing. He says: “Familiar historical forces will drive post pandemic reglobalization.” It is  true that globalization really suffered during the pandemic. Countries closed borders and protectionism became widespread. He believes that problems in the post-pandemic world can only be tackled on a global scale. The issue of a global supply chain is a good example; and the effects are global. Aside from global inflation there are now supply shortages and even manpower shortages.

James states the obvious when he says that technology is transforming our world into a globalized one. It is already doing that.  Starting the last decade of the 20th century, computers and the internet were key to globalizing the world’s communication power. Data science may now become the next source of a global revolution. James says: “New type of information might help leaders attack some of the inequality and injustice highlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic. More automation might mean that machines can take on some of the repetitive and dangerous tasks performed by low paid essential workers. Telemedicine and data driven public health can trigger faster and more precisely targeted pharmaceutical or medical interventions.”

The demand for cheaper and more reliable products will become more intense which, presumably, protectionism can stop. For example in the 2020s, there will be increased global demand for medical supplies, data chips and rare earth metals. These products will have to be produced and traded internationally.

One of the miracles of the pandemic era was how fast a vaccine was developed and distributed. No single county was responsible for this achievement.

International trade has long depended on the English language and the American dollar. This dependence cannot last forever. This will have to be replaced by greater international cooperation.

According to James: “Memories of the crisis will push countries and governments to adapt in 2021 and beyond just as they have done before.”

The most important topic that James did not tackle was the future of democracy. There is no question that not only is it under assault worldwide; but many countries are backsliding to authoritarianism and populism. If this trend continues, how will this affect his vision of reglobaliztion? This is one major reason I am not as optimistic that the post-pandemic era will be a new golden age.

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Young Writers’ Hangouts: Nov. 6 & 20, 2-3 p.m. with Glenda Oris and D.M. Reyes, respectively. Final session for adults for 2021: Nov. 13, 2-3:30 p.m. with Criselda Yabes on Discovering your Writing Voice.

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