The first time we had key members of the OCTA Research group on One News’ “The Chiefs” was at the start of the pandemic last year, before the first lockdown stopped our taping in the TV 5 studios.
Our guests were the mathematician in the group, Guido David, and the political scientist, Ranjit Rye. Both are professors at the University of the Philippines in Diliman.
It was a confusing, uncertain time. People were just beginning to shun the malls to avoid the unseen, largely unknown enemy.
The OCTA fellows were talking about trends, about the probable trajectory of SARS-CoV-2, based on mathematical projections and what we were seeing about the behavior of COVID-19 as it rampaged across its country of origin, China.
We were glad to have someone speak with an air of certainty about what might happen. Professor David tried as best as he could to explain to math-challenged journalists how he crunched data. But data analytics based on mathematical calculations are arcane to me, and their projections sounded like voodoo.
I asked them a question about their “predictions,” and they quickly corrected me. They’re no crystal ball gazers, they said; they don’t predict, they project what might happen.
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Over the next months, those projections – whether for the entire country, for Metro Manila or for more localized areas such as provinces and cities – proved to be frighteningly accurate. OCTA provided projections for scenarios ranging from best to worst. They opened their data to peer scrutiny.
No other person or outfit or government agency was providing the same analytics. Media began regularly following updates on the OCTA website or else seeking out the members for interviews. So, in answer to the question of some lawmakers used to lobbyists and paid publicity, no, OCTA never engaged in a media PR campaign.
They were initially referred to as the UP OCTA because the original members were eight UP educators. But the “UP” was eventually dropped after Dominican priest Nicanor Austriaco, a molecular biologist from Providence, Rhode Island in the US who is a visiting professor at the University of Sto. Tomas, took a greater role in the group.
The language of OCTA’s analytics has entered our pandemic lexicon: the virus reproduction number (R naught), transmission rate, flattening the curve.
Even national policy makers involved in the pandemic response took notice. OCTA was once invited to a briefing for President Duterte at Malacañang by the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases. OCTA projections were factored into IATF deliberations on quarantine classifications.
Local government units took notice as well. The Quezon City government, like Pasay City, saw an Alpha-driven spike in infections especially within entire households last March as the national government took its sweet time in acknowledging a surge. QC has enlisted the services of OCTA to track infection trends and make timely responses before the worst happens.
Father Nic told us on The Chiefs last Wednesday that OCTA is paid by the QC government for this service. Having taken a vow of poverty, his share goes to the Dominican Order. The UP professors in OCTA of course get their salaries from the state university.
He provided these details when we asked about OCTA’s funding, and whether it was using government money in any way.
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This is one of the questions that some lawmakers want to ask OCTA, if the House of Representatives goes along with a resolution seeking a probe into the research group’s methodology.
The resolution, filed by Bagong Henerasyon party-list Rep. Bernadette Herrera-Dy, is ostensibly in aid of legislation. It also intends to clarify accusations particularly from Dr. Edsel Salvana that OCTA is using inaccurate data to warn about the Delta surge.
Salvana is an infectious disease specialist who is a member of the technical advisory group of the Department of Health. He is a graduate of the UP College of Medicine and is director of the Institute of Molecular Biology and Biotechnology of the UP-National Institutes of Health.
He famously tweeted last Feb. 28 that the country had already contained COVID: “Even WHO says so. You naysayers won’t be content with what’s in front of you. That’s your problem not ours. We save your butt. You’re welcome.” Weeks later, just as OCTA warned, the deadly summer surge began.
Father Nic answered Salvana’s latest criticism last Wednesday on our show. It’s a rather long and detailed explanation but easy to understand. You can catch it in case the House probe pushes through.
OCTA has expressed readiness to face any probe, just as it has opened its data and analysis to peer review.
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AAMBI-Owa party-list Rep. Sharon Garin told us that the House probe may determine if the government needs to set up its own data analytics center.
Because politicians initiated the proposal, however, the motivation for the probe has become suspect, and looking like a case of wanting to shoot the messenger. OCTA, after all, is a cog seen to have functioned efficiently amid an incoherent pandemic response.
Endorsers of the House probe lament the extensive media reporting on OCTA projections, and the apparent influence of the group on decision-making in the pandemic response. They echo accusations that OCTA is “alarmist” and its projections are not rooted in science.
I don’t know if Father Nic and the team of biologists behind his development of a yeast-based COVID vaccine can’t be classified as scientists. As for Guido David, if a state-funded data analytics agency would be set up, they would have to hire him and pay him good money. At least now, the country is getting his services for the price of a UP professor’s salary.
Shouldn’t the congressmen summon the heads of government agencies instead, including the IATF, and grill them on why they listen to OCTA?
As for being alarmist, we saw what happened when health authorities ignored the “alarmist” OCTA projections and downplayed the probability of a surge driven by the Alpha and Beta variants last March and April.
This time, OCTA has warned that after weeks of lower infections in the National Capital Region, Delta could drive a renewed spike, and spread across the country. We’re already seeing this trend in the NCR, along with the relentless spread of Delta in other regions.
After over a year of battling COVID, with the coronavirus managing to stay one step ahead of the world, even Malacañang seems to think that it’s safer to be alarmed than unprepared.