Election fever

Election fever is upon us, aptly arriving with the pestilential typhoon season, even as experts warn of another COVID surge as people indulge in last-minute summer trips particularly to resorts.

These days it’s hard to tell which is more distressing: the public health situation, the economy or politics.

If the bodies of all the nearly 22,000 people who have died in this country due to COVID were piled up in one heap, with the images of their grieving loved ones in the background, perhaps the horrific impact of this plague will finally sink in.

Then we might see an end to publicity stunts in the guise of charity work, where COVID spreads merrily through the hungry crowds as physical distancing and other protocols are tossed aside.

And perhaps our public officials and politicians could focus on what is still the most urgent task at hand: containing COVID, which is now spreading relentlessly outside the National Capital Region, and which could make a U-turn any time, ravaging the NCR again as it did in the deadly months of April and May this year.

SARS-CoV-2 remains untamed, and COVID vaccines are still arriving in trickles, with the killer surge in India delaying deliveries expected this month in the Philippines.

As most economic analysts have pointed out, the Philippines is on track to become the regional laggard in post-pandemic recovery, thanks to the COVID surge in the NCR combined with the slow vaccine rollout.

All projections for the country’s gross domestic product growth this year have been rescaled downward. The fearless forecast of some analysts is that the country is set to regain its dubious distinction of being the sick man of Asia.

The negative outlooks have not yet factored in the impact of political turbulence leading up to the 2022 general elections, or the unreliability of the country’s power supply – a critical component in attracting investments.

In fact the power outages that have hit Luzon in this scorching, humid summer (and continuing through the start of the rainy season) illustrate the impact of political turbulence on pressing national problems.

While power generation companies are facing multiple probes for possible collusion to jack up the prices of electricity, Sen. Manny Pacquiao also landed a jab when he reminded his party mate and tormentor, Energy Secretary Energy Cusi, to focus on the power situation rather than politics.

The outages have made lockdown life even more unbearable for those working and studying from home, and disrupted binge watching on Netflix, so Pacquiao’s admonition resonated. The barb drew a public apology from Cusi for the rotational brownouts.

It might have also earned Pacquiao special mention by President Duterte (apart from the need to soothe the senator’s ruffled feathers as PDP-Laban president) as one of several persons being considered to be the administration’s standard bearer in the 2022 race.

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The past elections have shown the dire consequences of being an early bird in declaring one’s interest in running for president.

Mere speculation that a particular individual is considering this possibility draws an immediate attack to shoot down the person.

Pacquiao has seen this happen. Before him in the past months, a similar campaign was launched against the Villars, starting with Sen. Cynthia Villar, amid rumors that the family might make a second stab at the presidency.

And of course there has been a long-running campaign to vilify the head of the opposition, Vice President Leni Robredo.

It’s understandable that Robredo would want to keep everybody guessing as long as she can about her 2022 plans.

At this point, all these “done deal” declarations from supporters about their “dream tandems” for 2022 are really just that: dreams. Trial balloons. Drivers of surveys for name recognition.

Former Camarines Sur congressman Rolando Andaya Jr., who posted the “done deal” team-up of Duterte’s daughter Sara Duterte-Carpio with former defense chief Gilbert Teodoro, told us on “The Chiefs” last week on One News that he based his conclusion on the enigmatic smiles flashed by the two. This was at a four-hour meeting in Davao City, Andaya said, during which the conversation was intimate enough to include chatting about their tattoos.

What happens then to the PDP-Laban resolution, initiated by Cusi, urging President Duterte to run for vice president in 2022? Does the President know he’s no longer running? Andaya had no clear answer.

Andaya wasn’t the first to declare his certainty that Mayor Sara is running for president. The first was another Bicol politician, Albay Rep. Joey Salceda, who is all praises for the mayor’s grasp of economics. (Why are Bicolanos speaking for the first lady of Davao City?)

Considering our looming tag as Asia’s sick man, I don’t think the handling of the economy by the administration would be a good sell in the 2022 campaign.

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As for Teodoro, he’s a competent and decent man, but it doesn’t look like he can improve on his performance in the 2010 presidential race, wherein he placed fourth as the standard bearer of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s ruling Lakas Kampi CMD.

One thing Sara’s supporters agree on is that she doesn’t need to join the PDP-Laban to run for president. In fact after the 2022 polls, the PDP-Laban might end up returning to its pre-2016 status as the “Volkswagen party” – when its entire membership could fit into a VW Beetle.

But Sara will have to find a running mate from Luzon with mass appeal, someone who doesn’t come off too wealthy and remote.

As for a Duterte-Duterte tandem, analysts have pointed out that apart from the insatiable greed for power that such a team-up projects, it goes against the regionalist trend in voting in this country, which traditionally pairs a candidate from Luzon with one from the Visayas or Mindanao.

Rodrigo Duterte had Taguig’s Alan Peter Cayetano (Digong couldn’t pull up his VP bet though, who ended in third place behind Robredo and Bongbong Marcos).

Both Cayetano and Marcos, incidentally, have expressed openness to run for president next year.

Manila Mayor Isko Moreno had a good response to the possibility of a Duterte-Duterte tandem: government positions including the presidency should not be inherited, and he will never vote for a candidate who simply wants to inherit a post.

That sounded like an opening salvo for a blistering campaign. But for now, Mayor Isko looks focused on his city’s COVID measures. Which is how it should be.

The nation remains seriously sick with COVID, health-wise and economically. We’re still a long way from healing. Election fever is a distraction that can further mess up the pandemic response.