Transition

Political time is always short. The time required to undertake reform is always long. The misfortune lies in that mismatch.

Few doubt President Duterte’s ability to force a shift in the way this government is organized. He may expend a tremendous amount of political capital to get it done, including running roughshod over those who resist. The real question is whether he has the conviction to do it – considering the agenda of Charter change is defined by interests other than his own.

The President formed a committee to look into how constitutional renovation might be done. That committee produced a draft charter that looks underwhelming, concerned principally with outlining a roadmap for shifting to a federal form. The President dutifully endorsed the draft to both chambers of Congress. We will see, from Monday’s State of the Nation Address, how much conviction Duterte has in pushing this project forward.

The House of Representatives, most enthusiastic about this project, did not seem enthralled with the draft it received. Congressmen hewed and hawed about elements of this draft, including the matter of term limits and the exact transition process to put in place.

The Senate is vastly less enthusiastic about the federalism project and the whole rush to replace the Constitution. Surely the senators would not stand for any cancellation of midterm elections or anything that resembles term extension for the incumbents. They will definitely fight any process that will exclude the upper chamber.

The House, for its part, appears willing to do anything to see this project through – and at the shortest possible timetable.

Until they were reminded that excluding the Senate in the Charter change project by overwhelming them with the numbers would be utterly unconstitutional, the congressmen were actively exploring a route around the Senate’s stonewalling. Given the House leadership’s propensity for the crass and the crude, however, they could still attempt it.

Congressmen have not concealed their enthusiasm for cancelling the 2019 elections. Such a cancellation will give them a free pass to hold on to their posts until they are ready to find their places in the new federal setup.

Earlier this week, the House floated the scenario of displacing the midterm elections by way of a people’s initiative. Whatever the details of this proposal, it will surely render constitutional parameters elastic.

The electoral schedules and terms of office are clearly defined in the 1987 Constitution. It is unlikely the Supreme Court will be amused by such tampering.

We know what worries the House leadership. If elections are held as scheduled, much of the so-called super-majority they enjoy will be wiped out by term limits. The freshly elected legislators might not be too interested in giving up their hard-won posts to make way for a transition to federalism.

The whole idea of changing the Constitution by way of Congress converting itself into a constituent assembly never won the favor of our people. It is susceptible to accusations Charter change is tailored to suit the interests of incumbent politicians.

A drastic shift from a unitary form to a federal form cannot happen overnight. It will likely take a generation to complete. There are ten thousand kinks to be ironed out in the process.

If the transition is long and complex, who will we rely on to manage it?

Surely it cannot be President Duterte, the most trusted man on the edifice. He made clear he would have nothing to do with any transition government and aches to return to his quiet life in Davao. He will, after all, be 76 when his term ends.

Nor can it be Leni Robredo, who has been adjudged “incompetent” and whose election is under protest. Surely the super-majority is not inclined to deliver power to her on a silver platter.

But, even if we grant that federalism is a viable project, we do not have the bench of political leaders trusted by our people. The only way to get this complex renovation of the constitutional order done, it seems, is for a revolutionary government to be declared so that the Constitution may be changed albeit extra-constitutionally.

That, however, requires riding the tiger.

Economists

Our economists are speaking up. They are, almost to a man, suspicious of the federalism project.

The Philippine Institute for Development Studies calculates federalism will add P55 billion to public expenses. That is a most conservative estimate, accounting only for the pay of members of the regional assemblies to be organized under the new arrangement. It does not yet include new offices to be built, recurrent expenses for regional elections and payment for the staff.

Economic planning secretary Ernesto Pernia, for his part, argues that the larger governmental costs federalism implies will be inflationary. That is a view shared by economists from the University of Asia and the Pacific. They warn that this shift could precipitate hyperinflation – probably to as high as 1,000 percent.

The economics of federalism has not been worked out at all. There are all sorts of constitutional lawyers in the committee Duterte formed but not a single well-regarded economist.

As a result, the more we closely look at the economic dimensions of the proposed federal setup, the more we shudder.

The transition to a federal setup ought to be studied with the acute tools of political economy. We could end up with a small economy saddled with an oversized government.

The country will resemble a species with a very large head and a small body. So many of such species have gone extinct.