What if Binay is arrested, jailed without bail very soon?
Rumors are abuzz here in the capital that a devastating political and legal scenario is reportedly about to unfold. You may dismiss this as nothing but hearsay and is without basis in fact and in law. But by all appearances, my sources tipped me that the Vice President may be arrested within a few days on a supposed finding of probable cause in one, some or all of the many criminal charges being hurled against him. And since, the crimes are plunder, they are not bailable. There is thus a very strong probability that even before the filing of the certificate of candidacy, or immediately thereafter, such an arrest may be ordered by the proper court.
My reading of the cards is that indeed, something very earth-shaking is about to take place. If this materializes, and if my prognosis will prove itself correct, then it will be the greatest game-changer in the current political campaign. There shall be a massive realignment of forces. Hitherto supporters of the vice president may go on a bandwagon style and jumped to the side of Mar Roxas or Grace Poe. However, in the event that Poe is disqualified, then Mar will be virtually unopposed. That is why it is imperative that Mayor Rudy Duterte, Senator Miriam and Ambassador Roy Seneres should join the fray, if only to give the voters some alternatives.
This scenario may either be very bad news to the UNA and its followers. But it can be good news too because it will make Binay seemingly a victim of "persecution." He will be the underdog and such stance will generate a lot of sympathy votes. Pinoy voters always love the underdog. I have my fullest trust and confidence on the Ombudsman and the Secretary of Justice, as well as the honorable justices of the Sandiganbayan. They will never allow themselves to be instruments of persecutions. But the timing of the rumored arrest may lend itself to negative speculations.
On the other hand, there is a school of thought that believes that such scenario may be devastating to UNA. Many people think that there may arise a massive exodus from the Binay camp to the LP, or to the group of Grace Poe or even to Duterte if and when that maverick mayor ultimately decides to join the fray. Many of those were inclined to support Binay but have not finally decided to do so, may, in such a scenario, finally shift their support to the other bets. Even financial contributions may shift to the other directions.
To my mind, this sword of Damocles hanging over the head of the vice president poses a grave and imminent danger to his much maligned candidacy. Let us not forget that Binay started way, way ahead and very much over the other candidates. But the barrage of Senate hearings and the series of ''demolition charges'' fired by the enemies of Binay has successfully reduced his campaign from LEADING to TRYING TO SURVIVE. Many of his supporters have jumped ship. He can not even easily convince credible candidates to run as vice president in his ticket.
And so, if Binay is arrested and jailed in the next few days or weeks, the political landscape will definitely change. I cannot imagine the vice president joining senators Jinggoy and Bong in Camp Crame or being with GMA in the Veterans Hospital. Whatever it is, some political upheaval is about to hit the nation. And there might be a lot of collateral damage. I shudder to even think about it.
- Latest
