Balikatan 2026: A dress rehearsal for the 2027 Taiwan contingency?
Since President Donald Trump took office in January 2025, the US defense establishment and armed services have displayed a sense of urgency in the face of a possible Chinese armed invasion of Taiwan by 2027.
This heightened sense of urgency was reflected in how the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the US armed services conducted Balikatan 2025. From April 21 to May 21, 2025, the American and Filipino armed forces conducted the annual military exercise to strengthen the two allies' defense capabilities.
During the 2025 Balikatan military exercise, US military forces and the AFP coordinated operations across the land, sea, air, space and cyber domains. The exercise covered a range of combat and non-combat scenarios, from conventional warfare to humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.
This ensured the two allies’ armed forces were ready to address various contingencies. Filipino and American military officials confirmed that the 2025 Balikatan exercise would include a full-scale battle test between the US and Philippine armed forces.
This aimed to show the achievements of the AFP’s force modernization efforts and the two allies’ capabilities to operate as a team to advance their shared security and defense interests.
During a press conference, US Marine Corps Lt. General James Glynm announced: “that the US and Philippine (armed) forces have built up the capability to address any major act of (Chinese) aggression in the Taiwan Straits or the South China Sea after years of joint exercises.”
A heightened sense of expediency
Balikatan 2026 is significant as it reflects not only Philippine-US security concerns but also multilateral efforts and determination to prepare for a possible Chinese armed invasion of Taiwan in 2027.
On April 20, 2026, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, General Romeo Brawner, announced the start of the annual military drill Balikatan (Shoulder-to-Shoulder) 2026.
Originally conceived as a bilateral military exercise between the Philippines and the United States as a reaffirmation of the two allies' commitment to the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT), this year’s Balikatan exercise involves the deployment of 17,000 troops from other American bilateral and multilateral treaty allies from Canada, Australia, New Zealand, France and most significantly, Japan.
This year’s Balikatan military exercise is the largest in terms of the number of participating countries. What used to be a bilateral US-Philippine military drill, Balikatan 2026, is now a multilateral defense endeavor involving five additional states.
This is the culmination of Manila’s efforts to increase the number of its security partners, which is motivated by a growing concern over China’s increasing aggression in the South China Sea and against Taiwan. Since 2023, the Philippines has entered into several defense agreements with Japan, New Zealand, Canada, and most recently, France.
The most impactful among these security agreements is the signing and the ratification of the Philippine-Japan Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA). The agreement provides for simplified procedures and legal guarantees for the deployment of troops and equipment between the two US treaty allies and security partners for the conduct of joint exercises and disaster responses.
Before the RAA, JSDF’s participation in military drills in the Philippines primarily involved observing exercises and providing humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.
In view of the RAA, JSDF forces are participating in combat training scenarios involving defensive operations while bearing lethal weapons, representing a dramatic and significant departure from their previous roles in Balikatan exercises.
The highlight of the JSDF’s participation includes the deployment of 1,400 combat troops and the firing of the Type 88 anti-ship cruise missiles to sink a decommissioned Philippine Navy (PN) minesweeper off the northern coast of Luzon.
For Tokyo, Japanese participation in Balikatan 2026 marks a historic break in Japan’s security policy, as this involved the deployment of SDF forces in Southeast Asia.
This highlights a major shift from its passive defense posture to expeditionary military operations overseas and the forging of security ties between Japan and the Philippines in the face of possible China’s armed invasion of Taiwan in 2027.
From Manila’s perspective, the deployment of troops from the Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDF) marked the first time since the end of the Second World War that Japanese combat units set foot on Philippine soil.
It should be remembered that the forces from the Japanese Imperial Army from Taiwan invaded the Philippines immediately after the Japanese Imperial Navy attacked American forces at Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7, 1941.
This led to the brutal Japanese occupation of the Philippines, culminating in the 1945 Battle of Manila that led to the death of 100,000 Filipino civilians. However, in April 2026, the AFP warmly welcomed Japanese combat troops as other American treaty allies and security partners.
General Brawner emphasized this point when he stated: “Eighty-one years later, this is the first time we will have Japanese combat troops again on Philippine soil. Before, we were on opposite sides. This time, we find ourselves on the same side.”
A dress rehearsal for a 2027 Taiwan contingency?
Balikatan 2026 also features the cutting-edge multilateral training across air, land, sea, space and cyber domains.
Field training exercises are being conducted across the Philippine archipelago, culminating in capstone events that rehearse complex multilateral warfighting capabilities in maritime security, coastal defense and the integration of combined and joint live-fire drills.
This includes integrated air and missile defense exercises and counter-landing live-fire drills in Zambales and Palawan provinces, both facing the South China Sea.
The most significant of these live-fire drills is the holding, for the first time, of a Philippine-US maritime strike drill on the island of Itbayat, the northernmost point of the Philippine archipelago, which lies about 155 kilometers from Taiwan.
The drill involved transferring and deploying US Marine Corps and Army missile launchers from Luzon to Itbayat. Medium-range ballistic and cruise missiles fired from US Marine and Army launchers on this island can reach targets at ranges of 115 to 310 nautical miles, effectively covering maritime areas of Northern Luzon to the southern tip of Taiwan.
The capability of these launchers enabled American and Filipino forces to effectively deter any Chinese armed aggression in the Luzon Strait and Taiwan. This showed that this year’s Balikatan is a multilateral dress rehearsal in light of China’s irredentist and aggressive agenda against Taiwan in 2027.
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Dr. Renato De Castro is a trustee, convenor and non-resident fellow of think tank Stratbase ADR Institute. He is also a distinguished full professor at the Department of International Studies at De La Salle University-Manila.
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