PAGASA: Up to 17 cyclones expected until January 2026

MANILA, Philippines — Up to 17 tropical cyclones may enter or develop within the Philippine area of responsibility from August 2025 to January 2026, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced during its 186th Climate Forum on Tuesday.

Ana Liza Solis, PAGASA’s assistant weather services chief, said that two to four tropical cyclones are expected in each of the months of August, September and October 2025. Activity may slightly taper off by November with two to three systems, while only one to two cyclones are projected in December. By January 2026, only one system is likely.

For the first half of August, PAGASA is also monitoring a weather disturbance east of the country.

A tropical cyclone-like vortex may form between Aug. 1 and 7 over the eastern portion of the agency’s monitoring domain.

However, the system has a low probability of developing into a tropical cyclone. If it persists, it may enter the PAR between Aug. 8 and 14, though it is still expected to remain below cyclone classification.

In terms of temperature, the agency noted that slightly warmer than average conditions are expected across most parts of the country between August and December 2025. The warming trend is forecast to be more evident in Luzon, Visayas and parts of Mindanao, where temperatures may range from slightly above to significantly above normal levels.

From September to December, near to slightly below average temperatures may occur in localized areas, particularly in northern and western Luzon and portions of the Visayas. Surges of colder air associated with the northeast monsoon are also likely toward the latter part of the year.

Rainfall conditions are also expected to vary throughout the forecast period.

This month, above-normal rainfall is forecast in northern and eastern Luzon, central Visayas, and parts of northeastern and southern Mindanao, while near-normal rainfall is expected in the rest of the country.

September will generally bring near-normal rainfall nationwide. From October 2025 to January 2026, rainfall levels are forecast to range from near to above normal, with a possibility of way above normal rainfall in western Visayas and Zamboanga by January.