Regional breakdown: How party-lists stack up across the Philippines

MANILA, Philippines — The latest pre-election polls show that party-list frontrunners are not the same everywhere across the country as regional strongholds and local loyalties are shaping a diverse map of support as the May 2025 elections approach.

Public opinion research firm WR Numero released on Monday, April 28, survey results on how Filipinos in Metro Manila, Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao intend to vote for party-lists.

To automatically qualify for a seat in the 20th Congress, a party-list must secure at least 2% of the total votes cast. Party-lists that exceed this threshold are eligible for up to three seats, depending on the remaining seats after the allocation of all 63 seats in the 317-member chamber.

Based on this requirement, WR Numero’s poll results from March 31 to April 7 suggest that the following party-lists may secure more than one seat:

• 4Ps Party-List
• Duterte Youth
• FPJ Panday Bayanihan
• Tingog Party-List
• ACT-CIS Party-List
• Malasakit@Bayanihan
• Dumper PTDA
• 1-Rider Party-List
• Ako Bicol
• Kabataan
• Uswag Ilonggo
• Solid North Party

What does this look like on a regional level, though?

Luzon

4Ps Party-List led with 13.9% overall support, drawing most of its backing from Metro Manila (21.6%) and Luzon (10.2%), where it ranked first in both areas. However, in Visayas and Mindanao, while still part of the top three, they were not the most preferred.

This party-list, however, has been flagged by election watchdog Kontra Daya for fielding nominees from political families, including Rep. Marcelino Libanan, whose two daughters are also nominees and whose wife is running for district representative. 

It also counts among its nominees members of the Abalos family in Mandaluyong, including Rep. Jonathan Abalos II, a nephew of former Interior Secretary Benhur Abalos.

ACT-CIS Party-List follows 4Ps among Metro Manila respondents with 14.4% support, but only 2.9% in the rest of Luzon. While it topped the 2022 elections, it ranks just fifth nationally in the latest pre-election survey with 3.4%.

It is also associated with the Tulfo and Yap families, who position themselves as representatives of the oppressed and abused to help prevent crime in the country. The party-list was also flagged by Kontra Daya for not truly representing such underrepresented groups due to its political families.

Ako Bicol, the party-list of Rep. Elizaldy Co, who previously chaired the House appropriations committee that plans the national budget, placed third with 5.1% in regional support. 

RELATED: Political dynasties, big business dominate party-list system in 2025 polls

Visayas

In Visayas, Malasakit@Bayanihan Party-List emerged as the top choice, garnering 15.5% of voter support. It was closely followed by Tingog Party-List — led by House Speaker Martin Romualdez’s wife and Rep. Jude Acidre — with 13%.

While Romualdez’s party-list ranked in the top 10 in Metro Manila and Luzon, it fell to 15th in Mindanao—a disparity that may be related to ongoing tensions between Vice President Sara Duterte and House Speaker Martin Romualdez.

4Ps also earned significant support in the Visayas, with 12.5% of respondents backing them. Close behind was Uswag Ilonggo, which secured 11.5% of support, just one percentage point lower.

Notably, 1-Rider Party-List does not perform strongly in Metro Manila or Mindanao but ranks among the top 10 in Luzon and top 5 in the Visayas. In the 2022 elections, however, the party-list secured second place even though it was in its first race.

Mindanao

The story shifts significantly in Mindanao. Duterte Youth Party-List led the region with 29% of support from regional respondents, despite only ranking within the top 20 in other regions.

This helped boost their current national standing in WR Numero’s poll to second place, with 8.6% of respondents preferring them.

Duterte Youth, associated with the family name of former President Rodrigo Duterte and a known supporter of his administration, has also been flagged for its military ties and history of red-tagging.

Since Rodrigo’s arrest by the International Criminal Court on charges of crimes against humanity, the party-list’s poll numbers have increased, including a 3-percentage-point rise in Tangere’s March pre-election survey.

The same trend was seen with senatorial candidates aligned with Rodrigo, such as incumbent Senators Bong Go and Bato dela Rosa, who remain in the winning circle of pre-election polls.

RELATED: Duterte allies rise in Senate poll, but 3 in 5 Filipinos still back ICC case

The party-list, however, faced controversies in 2019 when its then-nominee Ronald Cardema, aged 34 at the time, was disqualified for being over the legal age limit to represent a youth sector group. The Party-List Law requires youth representatives to be aged 25 to 30.

Several youth groups petitioned for Duterte Youth’s registration to be canceled following the incident, but even after six years, the case remains unresolved. 

4Ps ranked second among Filipino respondents in Mindanao with 19.2%, a higher percentage than its support in Luzon and Visayas.

Another Duterte-backed party-list, Dumper PTDA, ranked third in Mindanao with 14.6% support, claiming to represent taxi drivers. While it wasn't popular in other regions, its strong performance in Mindanao boosted its national numbers.

The party-list has also been flagged for including nominees from the Bautista political dynasty in Davao Occidental, including incumbent Rep. Claudine Diana Bautista-Lim.

Party-lists with less than 2%

Despite securing less than 2%, these party-lists in the 19th Congress may secure one seat in the next. To gain more, they would need to increase their support. These include:

• Akbayan - 1.6%
• Ako Bisaya - 1.4%
• Gabriela - 1.3%
• Bicol Saro - 1.3%
• Senior Citizens - 1.1%
• Pusong Pinoy - 1.1%
• CWS - 1.1%
• Kalinga - 1.1%
• Agimat 1.1%
• ACT Teachers - 0.9%
• APEC Party-list - 0.8%

Former Sen. Leila de Lima’s party-list, Mamamayang Liberal (ML), is also struggling to reach 1% support in the pre-election survey, despite endorsements from figures like former Vice President Leni Robredo and celebrity endorsements. It garnered just 0.7% support in both Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon.

Bayan Muna, once a top-performing party-list led by former Reps. Neri Colmenares and Carlos Zarate, used to secure three seats with over a million votes. But in the 2022 elections, its support plummeted to just 0.6%.

It’s worth noting, however, that these are only pre-election surveys that offer a snapshot of Filipinos’ public sentiment. 

WR Numero surveyed 1,894 Filipino adults across the country, with 262 from Metro Manila, 848 from the rest of Luzon, 375 from Visayas and 409 from Mindanao. The survey has a ±2% margin of error. 

The midterm elections are set for May 12, with the campaign period ending on May 10.