Duterte allies rise in Senate poll, but 3 in 5 Filipinos still back ICC case

MANILA, Philippines — Even as a strong majority of Filipinos believe former President Rodrigo Duterte should stand trial in The Hague over his drug war, some of his Senate allies continue to climb in pre-election polls.

At first glance, the survey results may seem contradictory, but political scientists say they only reflect how voters can hold conflicting views on different issues, regardless of where their preferred leaders or parties stand.

In its latest noncommissioned survey, public opinion research firm WR Numero found that 62% of Filipino respondents believe it is important for Duterte to face his case of crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Court (ICC).

More than half, or 52%, also said Duterte should be held accountable under the law and given a fair trial for the charges against him, while 54% believe he should answer for the thousands of extrajudicial killings in anti-illegal drug operations.

Meanwhile, fewer than one in four Filipinos disagreed with both statements, believing it is not important for Duterte to personally face his case or stand trial for his bloody “war on drugs” campaign.

The survey, conducted from March 31 to April 7, interviewed 1,894 Filipino adults, with a ±2% margin of error and a 95% confidence level. It was carried out about 20 days after Duterte's arrest and transfer to the ICC.

The findings clearly show that Filipinos have a strong stance on Duterte’s ICC case and his responsibility for his brutal crackdown on illegal drugs. However, WR Numero’s latest survey findings on senatorial preferences may present quite a puzzling picture.

Dela Rosa, Go gain ground

Compared to their rankings in February 2025, two Duterte-aligned senatorial candidates have moved up by at least five places in the latest survey. 

Incumbent Sens. Bato dela Rosa and Bong Go, both former high-ranking officials during Duterte's presidency, now poll among the top three preferred senatorial candidates. They received support from 38.7% and 41.9% of Filipino respondents, respectively.

Other senatorial candidates from Partido Demokratiko Pilipino Lakas ng Bayan (PDP Laban), Duterte's political party, also saw significant jumps in their rankings, though none broke into the top 12.

Both Dela Rosa and Go have also been holding a Senate probe into the legality of his arrest, questioning Cabinet officials for handing Duterte over to the international tribunal. 

So how could this be the case when the same survey shows a majority of respondents believe the former president should face trial at the ICC, a stance clearly opposed by the senatorial bets from his party?

Voters think beyond partisanship

Political scientist and WR Numero founder Robin Garcia said the two views are not mutually exclusive. Supporting Duterte doesn't automatically mean opposing the ICC proceedings or the due process needed to hold him accountable.

Similarly, even those who don't support Duterte may still believe the former president shouldn't face trial at the ICC.

“So people can still support the trial and the impeachment at the same time that they support Duterte-aligned candidates,” he said.

While the survey shows that the trial is one of the things that Filipinos care about, Garcia said it is also “not the only reason why they would vote for a certain candidate.”

Survey results, including those from other research firms, show that Filipinos often cite rising inflation, the cost of goods and services, healthcare expenses and the education crisis as their top concerns when choosing candidates to vote for in the 2025 midterm elections.

“If we compare this to our past surveys then, we're learning that most of the issues that are important for our voters when it comes to their senate preferences are your fish and rice issues,” political scientist and WR Numero CEO Cleve Arguelles said in a mix of English and Filipino. 

“So highly partisan, highly politicized issues may not necessarily be the biggest voting consideration of the average or ordinary Filipino voter,” he added. 

Arguelles also pointed out that if partisanship were a major factor for voters, then Sen. Imee Marcos’ numbers should be improving the same way Dela Rosa’s and Go’s ranks are moving. 

However, despite aligning herself with the Dutertes and leading the Senate probe into Duterte’s arrest, she has continued to slip in pre-election surveys, even falling out of the top 12. In WR Numero’s poll, Marcos only climbed one spot and currently ranks between 15th and 17th.

“If the story here is clear, if voters have pity for former President Duterte or that they're siding with him in terms of the ICC arrest, then I think … we would expect [her numbers to] be moving, right?” Arguelles said. 

In other words, Duterte’s ICC case is not the main motivation driving Filipinos’ voting decisions, as more urgent, everyday concerns like poverty, education and healthcare take precedence.

Recent surveys from polling firms show that most candidates from the administration’s slate, Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas, remain within the top 12. 

Meanwhile, former Sens. Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan are neck and neck, trading places at ranks 12 and 13. Both are running for Senate together. 

The midterm elections are set for May 12, with the campaign period ending two days before or on May 10.