OCTA: ECQ worked, COVID-19 spread slows

MANILA, Philippines — OCTA Research has found that the implementation of enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) from Aug. 6 to 20 has slowed down COVID-19 infections in Metro Manila, even as the country logged 16,044 new cases yesterday the third highest on record.

The research team said the growth rate has decreased because of the stricter quarantine rules put in place, but efforts need to be sustained over the next four weeks to control the pandemic in the National Capital Region (NCR).

In an update issued yesterday, OCTA noted that Metro Manila averaged 3,819 new COVID-19 cases per day over the past seven days, from Aug. 15 to 21, which is 24 percent higher than the previous seven-day average of 3,088 from Aug. 8 to 14.

OCTA pointed out that two weeks ago, the one-week growth rate in the NCR was 48 percent, while three weeks ago it was 72 percent.

“While new cases are still increasing, the decreasing growth rate is consistent with a decreasing reproduction number. In other words, the surge has slowed down in the NCR,” it said.

“The current reproduction number in the NCR is 1.67, while its value seven days ago was 1.90. The seven-day average of the positivity rate in the NCR was 22 percent,” OCTA added.

The research group said the lockdown from Aug. 6 to 20 helped reduce the growth rate of new COVID-19 cases, but the number of cases daily may still rise in the next two weeks.

It explained that on April 1, 2021, the NCR had around the same level of infection or reproduction number and back then, it took two to three more weeks before new COVID-19 cases started to decrease in Metro Manila.

“This is likely the best case scenario in the NCR. The current rate of decrease of the reproduction number is slower than the rate of decrease in April,” OCTA explained.

The group said one possible reason is the presence of the highly transmissible Delta variant, while another is the higher mobility reported by the Department of Health (DOH) during the recent ECQ implementation.

“In any case, the downward trend in new cases may happen in the next few weeks, but this will require sustained efforts in pandemic management over the next four weeks by the local and national government and the public,” OCTA concluded.

16,044 cases

Active cases of COVID-19 nationwide exceeded 125,000, as DOH reported an additional 16,044 cases yesterday.

DOH said additional cases pushed the total number of COVID-19 cases nationwide to 1,839,635. Of the total number, 125,900 are active, while 1,681,925 have recovered.

An additional 125 deaths brought to 31,810 the total number of those who succumbed to the infection. DOH reported 13,952 more patients who recovered from the infection.

Based on DOH data, active and new cases are still highest in Metro Manila followed by Calabarzon and Central Luzon.

Over 16.9 million people have been tested with 11.51 percent positivity rate as of Aug. 20.

Meanwhile, the DOH clarified that the duration of immunity provided by COVID-19 vaccines is still under study.

To generate complete results, DOH said participants of clinical trials are monitored for up to one to two years.

“Long term follow up studies in the trials are still ongoing, (thus) data on the duration of immunity is subject to updating,” the DOH said in an advisory released Saturday.

DOH made the clarification amid circulating reports regarding the length of protection that COVID vaccines offer.

The agency noted that all the COVID-19 vaccines currently available in the country are merely operating under an emergency use authorization (EUA).

“This means that they were given emergency approval based on the interim results of ongoing Phase III clinical trials, which, in this state of a public health emergency, will suffice to apply for and be issued with an EUA,” DOH said.

The agency reiterated that booster shots are not recommended at this time, and that those vulnerable should be prioritized due to vaccine supply shortage. – Mayen Jaymalin