Unless Delta variant breaches, NCR Plus 8 can have herd immunity by Christmas — OCTA
MANILA, Philippines — OCTA Research on Sunday said Metro Manila and eight other priority areas for COVID-19 vaccination can reach herd immunity by Christmas, but stressed that the threat of the Delta variant should be kept out of the country.
OCTA fellow Fr. Nicanor Austriaco, a molecular biologist and member of the Order of Preachers, said that a possible community transmission of the highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 variant, which was first identified in India, could skew the estimates.
"I think that given the numbers, our hope that we will reach herd immunity at least in NCR Plus 8 by Christmas is reasonable," Austriaco told radio dzMM. "[But] this does not take into effect the Delta variant."
Government has sought to focus inoculation efforts in the capital region along with Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Batangas, Pampanga, Metro Cebu and Metro Davao.
By June 22, official figures showed the country has administered 8.92 million COVID-19 vaccine doses. This would translate to 2,246,897 fully vaccinated individuals, out of the government's target of 50 to 70 million this year.
Then there's also Delta Plus
Austriaco said it appears that the country has managed to block cases of the Delta variant with 17 reported so far, but government should not let its guard down despite the improving picture in Metro Manila and nearby provinces.
The priest-scientist also explained that besides the threat of the Delta Variant, its mutation Delta Plus, a sub-lineage, is spreading in other countries.
"Now, the question is the threat of the Delta or the Delta Plus," Austriaco said. "This is something that government is going to examine. It's not just how good we are now, but we have to be ready in case the Delta or the Delta Plus arrives."
The Delta Plus is seen to be more transmissible and has shown evidence of resisting some vaccines.
Moreover, a pattern of a surge in infections upon the detection of new variants is present, Austriaco said.
"Over the past year and a half, we have a surge when there's a new variant," he said. "If there is no variant, things come down. And that's what we're seeing now, a coming down after the arrival of the Alpha and Gamma variants."
Austriaco said they have yet to come up with an official recommendation on a new quarantine classification as the month comes to a close. The independent panel of experts regularly releases its forecasts on the pandemic picture in the country.
"We have to protect ourselves from the Delta variant and it is hopeful that government has already been able to block 17 cases," he added.
Last week, the pandemic task force said it has expanded its list of priority areas for vaccination. It will now include the cities of Bacolod, Iloilo, Baguio, Cagayan de Oro, Zamboanga, Dumaguete, Tuguegarao, General Santos, Naga and Legazpi, citing the high incidence of COVID-19 cases in these areas.
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