MANILA, Philippines — The state weather bureau yesterday warned of a possible dry spell or drought conditions in Luzon and the Visayas due to El Niño in the coming months.
The chance of El Niño developing by early 2019 has increased to more than 90 percent based on latest forecasts of international climate monitoring agencies, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration’s (PAGASA) said.
“The possibility of El Niño development is more than 90 percent, the uncertainty is only at four percent,” said Ana Liza Solis, head of PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section.
Solis said the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean has surpassed the El Niño threshold of 0.5 degrees Celsius in the past several months.
Solis, however, said the temperature anomaly has yet to affect the country’s climate.
She said the developing El Niño, which is likely to be weak, will cause below normal rainfall in some parts of the country in the first half of 2019.
“(Sea surface temperature) has now reached El Niño levels, but atmospheric indicators do not show consistent El Niño signal as coupling is yet to be established,” Solis said.
Coupling is a process that would sustain an El Niño, she added.
Solis said by January, generally way below to below normal rainfall conditions will be likely over most parts of the country except most of Southern Luzon, Eastern Visayas and Caraga where near normal rainfall is expected.
By February, generally way below to below normal rainfall will prevail, with patches of near normal rainfall in Davao region and Caraga.
Generally way below to below normal rainfall conditions will prevail over the country except Davao, Soccsksargen region and most of provinces in Caraga that will likely receive near to above normal rainfall conditions by March.
By April, way below to below normal rainfall conditions are expected except in Caraga.
Northern Luzon and most parts of Mindanao will likely receive near normal rainfall conditions while the rest of the country will likely experience below normal rainfall conditions by May.