Noli, Erap top bets for 2010 survey

MANILA, Philippines – Vice President Noli de Castro and former President Joseph Estrada placed No. 1 and 2, respectively, in a list of “presidentiables” for the 2010 elections, according to a non-commissioned Pulse Asia survey.

Pulse Asia’s Ulat ng Bayan survey, conducted from July 1 to 14, showed that if presidential elections were held at this time, De Castro, a known administration ally, will win.

The vice president was favored by 22 percent of Filipino adults, followed by Estrada with 16 percent.

Senators Francis Escudero and Loren Legarda were tied in third place with 14 percent.

Senate President Manuel Villar came in fourth with 12 percent, followed by Sen. Mar Roxas, eight percent; Sen. Panfilo Lacson, five percent; Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, two percent; Metro Manila Development Authority Chairman Bayani Fernando, one percent and Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno, 0.2 percent.

Pulse Asia said survey results indicate that De Castro essentially maintains the voter support he enjoyed in March 2008, which was 21 percent.

On the other hand, inclusion of the name of Estrada in the list appears to have drawn voter preference away from some candidates identified with the opposition namely, Lacson (down by five percentage points from 10 percent in March), Legarda (down by four percentage points) and Roxas (down by two percentage points), Pulse Asia said.

But two possible presidential candidates also identified with the opposition, Escudero and Villar, register marginal increases (one percent and three percent, respectively) in voter support, according to the survey.

The survey also revealed that Escudero and Legarda would top the vice-presidential race if elections were held today.

As for the vice-presidential race, Escudero and Legarda would be tied for first place if the May 2010 elections were held today, with the former obtaining 25 percent of the votes and the latter, 23 percent, Pulse Asia said.

Tied in a distant second place with voter preference in the five percent to 11 percent range are Sen. Francis Pangilinan, Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, Binay, Sen. Ramon Revilla, and Batangas Gov. Vilma Santos.

Three other possible candidates included in the list obtain voter preference of four percent or lower. On the other hand, about seven percent of Filipino adults have no vice-presidential presidential preference, refuse to name them or are undecided, the pollster said.

“A comparison of the current survey results with the results in the previous round shows that preference for the possible vice-presidential candidates is essentially unchanged since March 2008,” it said.

The survey also showed that Legarda and Escudero is the most preferred tandem by most Filipino voters.

“If the May 2010 elections were held today, the Legarda-Escudero tandem would obtain the highest voter support with 40 percent,” Pulse Asia said.

The Villar-de Castro and Roxas-Pangilinan tandems obtain 26 percent and 13 percent voter preference, respectively.

However, about one in five Filipino adults do not prefer any of the three tandems presented. The percentage of adults without a preference for any of the three tandems is particularly high in balance Luzon at 31 percent, Pulse Asia said.

In a telephone interview, Pulse Asia executive director Ana Maria Tabunda clarified that the survey of the 10 presidentiables was not commissioned by any party and was part of its regular Ulat ng Bayan survey.

She said results of the survey were not released earlier as they prioritized more pressing issues.

The survey used face-to-face interviews of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above.

Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a plus or minus three percent error margin at the 95 percent confidence level.

Poised and ready

After topping the survey, De Castro belied that he commissioned Pulse Asia to conduct it, saying he does not have the resources to fund it.

He admitted, though, that he had been offered by different groups like Pulse Asia to commission surveys but he turned down all the offers that usually require a payment of more than P200,000.

When asked to comment on the surveys conducted that are favorable to him, he said that the results showed he is effective in the agencies he headed.

De Castro also topped among the presidential bets in Pulse Asia’s March survey.

“Rest assured, I will use this not for any political purpose or personal ambition but solely for improving my work and rendering better public service,” he said.

De Castro said he is “grateful for the trust and confidence expressed by the people through this latest Pulse Asia survey” that is an inspiration to work doubly hard in performing his tasks as Vice President, chairman of the Housing and Urban Coordinating Council (HUDCC), and presidential adviser on overseas Filipino workers (OFWs).

Last January, De Castro received highest satisfaction ratings in the Social Weather Stations (SWS) among government leaders.

He said it is a challenge posed to him for the next two years in the government.

De Castro received a net satisfaction rating of +41 that is the highest approval rating he received since he took office three years ago.

He said he does not want his performance in the government in the next two years to be seen as part of a campaign for the presidency but he admitted his plan to join the 2010 presidential race.

De Castro stressed that he has not given his commitment to join a particular political party but talks with parties are ongoing.

Despite placing second in the latest survey of possible presidential candidates for 2010, former President Joseph Estrada declared it is still too early to think about the 2010 presidential elections.

“Instead of the elections, we should look at how to help resolve the various crises plaguing the country,” Estrada said in reaction to the latest survey showing him tailing frontrunner Vice President Noli de Castro.

Estrada maintained that he would be “the last option” in the 2010 presidential elections, should the opposition remain divided on their choice of presidential candidate.

“It’s too early to tell,” Estrada said. “As I have said many times, I only want to unite the opposition by fielding a single candidate because it will be easy to cheat us if we will have many candidates.”

Estrada said the opposition must learn its lesson from the 2004 presidential elections where his bosom buddy, the late actor Fernando Poe Jr., ran but lost to President Arroyo.

But he admitted that the latest Pulse Asia survey of presidential wannabes for the 2010 polls is a form of vindication for him.

“This (survey) reflects that the people still trust me in spite of the demonizations against me in the power grab in 2001,” Estrada said, referring to the popular revolt that removed him from office in January 2001 amid allegations of graft.

Estrada stressed the people’s trust in a leader is very important.

“You cannot govern if the people do not trust you anymore. The people’s trust in a leader is very important because it is a reflection of a leader’s relationship with the people and can only be the result of one’s genuine concern for the welfare of the public,” he said.

The Pulse Asia survey for 2010 presidentiables was the first that included Estrada.

The survey results showed De Castro topping the list with 22 percent trust ratings and Estrada a distant second with 16 percent.

The same survey showed Senators Loren Legarda and Francis Escudero coming in tied at third place with 14 percent while Senate President Manny Villar was fourth with 12 percent.

Estrada was convicted of plunder in September last year and pardoned by Mrs. Arroyo the following month.

Since his release from detention at his rest house in Tanay, Rizal, Estrada has embarked on a road tour to express his gratitude to his supporters in Metro Manila and the provinces.

Many political observers viewed Estrada’s “Lakbay Pasasalamat” as a campaign of sorts in preparation for the 2010 presidential elections.

But Estrada said he has no intention to seek reelection and run in 2010, but he may forced to run again if the opposition fails to come up with a single candidate under a single ticket.

Estrada yesterday said he would make the effort to unite the opposition to prevent a repeat of the 2004 elections debacle.

The former president said he would focus on efforts to consolidate the presidential wannabes from the opposition and come up with a strong contender.

Estrada noted the ratings of Legarda and Escudero, when combined, would exceed the ratings of De Castro.

“That’s why there should only be one opposition candidate,” he pointed out.

Not so lucky Erap

“Three” is definitely not former President Joseph Estrada’s lucky number.

Estrada, the second president to try his luck in ABS-CBN’s popular television game show “Deal or No Deal,” took home only P750 in prize money after he rejected the banker’s offer of P275,000 to quit the game, in the hope that the briefcase number 3 he chose would contain P500,000.

The number 7 briefcase was the one that contained the P500,000.

Had Estrada won, the half a million pesos would have gone to Bantay Bata and typhoon victims. Still, Estrada promised to add more to the P750 he won to give to the charities.

Actress Kris Aquino, the show’s host, thanked Estrada for joining the show and said he was luckier than her mother, former President Cory Aquino, wh only got P450. Mrs. Aquino played in the game show during its anniversary last year.

Estrada’s P750 prize was also the same amount that his son, Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, took home when he participated in the show sometime last year.

Estrada was accompanied and supported by Jinggoy who sat in the audience while his two sons by actress Laarni Enriquez, Jake and Jacob and grandchildren Julian and Janella, the kids of Jinggoy, were seated in the gallery stage. All of them selected the briefcases for Estrada.

Estrada got off to a poor start when he opened the briefcases containing the P1-million and P2-million prizes. The banker offered him a starting bid of P13 to quit the game.

However, the banker’s offer rose to P22,000 and P40,000 when Erap, on the suggestion of his children and grandchildren, opened briefcases containing P5, P200 and P50.

Jinggoy chose numbers 17 and 5, which contained P1 and P5. Choosing briefcases with lower amounts raises one’s chances of taking home the large amounts.

The banker’s offer rose to P100,000 but Estrada chose to continue the game and pressed “no deal.”

Everyone in the audience thought Estrada was doomed when he chose dancer Charmel’s briefcase, thought to carry a big amount which could lower the banker’s offer.

But Charmel’s briefcase contained only P22. The banker’s offer increased to P150,000 and then to P161,000, when Estrada again chose a low amount.

At a certain point, the banker, who seemed star struck with the former president, requested to talk to Estrada over the phone.

Kris told the banker: “Mataas ang respeto ko sa opisina ng presidente, kaya ayusin mo ang pakikipagusap mo. Kayo lang po ang pinayagan ko na makausap si banker.”

Estrada then appealed to the banker to increase his offer because he would donate his winnings to Bantay Bata and typhoon victims.

“Hello, hello banker, Sana bigyan mo kami ng malaki  dahil ido-donate namin ito sa Bantay Bata at typhoon victims. Sana maawa ka naman sa amin, thank you, ha?” said Estrada.

After Estrada’s plea, the banker’s offer rose to P240,000 

The banker’s final offer was P275,000 but Estrada still refused to quit the game and pressed the button “no deal.”

After heeding the advice of his children and grandchildren, he chose to stick to the game and opened his briefcase which contained P750.

The audience rooted for Estrada by chanting his nickname, “Erap, Erap!”

When Kris asked Estrada why he chose a certain briefcase held by one of the show’s sexy ladies, Estrada replied, to the audience’s amusement, “I am invoking executive privilege.” – With Pia-Lee Brago, Rudy Santos, Patricia Esteves