Opposition senatorial bets dominate Pulse Asia survey

With a week before the deadline for the filing of candidacy for the Senate, candidates from the opposition continue to dominate the list of likely winners for the May 14 midterm elections, according to the latest survey released by Pulse Asia.

Former senator Loren Legarda leads the list of winning opposition senatorial candidates with 46.6 percent of the electorate supporting her candidacy.

The survey also showed re-electionist senators Panfilo Lacson at 34.6 percent and Francis Pangilinan at 34.6 percent.

Taguig-Pateros Rep. Alan Peter Cayetano made it with 31.7 percent with former senator Vicente Sotto III landing at 28.8 percent.

"These individuals may be considered as sure winners if elections were held today given that their current statistical rankings range from first to 11th places – clearly within the winning circle of 12 senators," Pulse Asia said.

Pulse Asia said "a tight race is shaping up for the last seven slots" if the elections were held today.

The survey was conducted Jan. 25 to 29, with 1,200 respondents.

The same survey revealed six individuals share the same statistical ranking of fifth to 14th places, namely Senate President Manuel Villar Jr. at 26.4 percent, Sen. Ralph Recto (26 percent), Sen. Joker Arroyo (25.8 percent), San Juan Mayor Joseph Victor Ejercito (25.7percent), lawyer Aquilino Pimentel III (24.4 percent) and Sen. Edgardo Angara at 24 percent.

Completing the list of probable winners are former senator Gregorio Honasan, 23.3 percent, House Minority Leader Francis Escudero (23.2 percent) and Tarlac Rep. Benigno Aquino III (22.5 percent).

Pulse Asia said only 12.2 percent of the respondents are either undecided on their choice of senatorial candidates or simply refused to name their political preferences.

"On average, Filipinos are naming eight of their senatorial bets for the May 2007 elections, the same figure recorded in Pulse Asia’s November 2006 Ulat ng Bayan national survey," it said.

While interviews for the survey are being conducted, Pulse Asia said many of the respondents were also affected by the emerging developments and controversies tugging at headlines.

Malacañang, on the other hand, remained unfazed, saying surveys cannot be 100 percent accurate to predict the outcome of the elections.

"Surveys during elections are really a good basis but it does not follow it would be 100 percent correct," Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita said.

He said the administration is not totally bothered by adverse pre-election surveys since there are other factors that can change the outcome of the polls.

Political posturings

Preparations are heating up on both sides with the administration forming the "unity ticket" as against the opposition finding it hard to complete its lineup.

The ruling party Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats yesterday officially declared Bukidnon Rep. Jose Miguel Zubiri as their first candidate in the senatorial "unity" ticket for the May 14 elections.

Zubiri proceeded to the Commission on Elections (Comelec) national office in Intramuros, Manila and filed his certificate of candidacy under the Lakas banner.

"Whatever I have done in the past (as congressman). I will double it in the Senate," Zubiri declared.

Lakas executive director Rey Roquero said Zubiri will represent Lakas in the unity ticket of the ruling coalition.

"We are still finalizing our list. We are considering Ilocos Sur Gov. (Luis) Chavit Singson, Isabela Gov. Grace Padaca as among the senatorial coalition candidates," according to Roquero.

Angara, on the other hand, declared his intention to join the administration’s unity ticket.

Angara said he will remain as leader of the opposition Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP) despite running in the administration ticket.

He said the administration lineup brings together people of different political persuasions and colors "to come together for the sake of unity."

Before he made the announcement to move over to the administration, Angara made a parting shot to the opposition by claiming it had become too fragmented and weak to stand on its own.

Angara claimed the opposition is suffering from intense rivalry since "there are many superstars among them."

"Unless they will put their acts together, there will be no so-called United Opposition (UNO)," Angara told reporters after addressing the 74th National Assembly and Conference of the Philippine Association of Local Treasurers and Assessors in Baguio City yesterday.

Angara, as LDP chairman, was instrumental in the presidential bid of the late action star Fernando Poe Jr. in 2004.

With Poe’s passing, Angara said it is now time to move on.

Angara also blamed Sen. Panfilo Lacson for splitting the opposition when he ran as an independent against Poe.

"The spoiler in that campaign is now leading the opposition. He was the one who broke the opposition at that time. If he didn’t run, we would have won and there would have been absolutely no opportunity to cheat at all because the commanding lead of FPJ would have been insurmountable," Angara said.

Lacson early on criticized Angara "for jumping over" and gave unsolicited advice to President Arroyo to "watch her back" in bringing over the opposition senator to the administration.

Angara’s decision to join the administration’s unity ticket ends the short-lived aspirations of the re-electionist senators to put up a "third force" or an alternative senatorial ticket.

Angara claimed the third force talks have bogged down after the Wednesday Group of the Senate composed of Senate President Manuel Villar, Majority Leader Francis Pangilinan, Senators Ralph Recto and Joker Arroyo decided to go separate ways.

Recto and Arroyo are reportedly studying their options to join the administration while Villar has moved to the opposition and Pangilinan is yet undecided, according to Angara.

Minority Leader Francis Escudero, who was with Angara in the Baguio forum, on the other hand claimed the veteran senator is already "aging."

Escudero boasted "the opposition will come strong in the midterm polls with a complete slate."

"We will present a viable opposition," Escudero said, stressing that even during the Marcos dictatorship, the opposition had not been united against the late strongman.

Former senator Gregorio "Gringo" Honasan also joined the race and vowed to unite the country if he won.

Under heavy security, Honasan was driven from Fort Sto. Domingo in Sta. Rosa, Laguna, where he is in detention and being tried for allegedly masterminding a failed February 2006 coup, to the Commission on Elections (Comelec) in Manila. He filed his certificate of candidacy to the cheers of about 200 supporters.

Honasan said he would be running as an independent and would launch a proxy campaign using close friends.

Honasan, though, welcomed the possibility of being endorsed by the administration.

"I have always run as an independent but (I) welcome any expression of support from any group, administration or opposition, and individual," he said.

Honasan said he will not "refuse endorsement so long as those who endorse his candidacy follow his platform of governance."

"I file my certificate of candidacy to continue the programs that I started and serve the purpose of my generation," he said. – With Paolo Romero, Christina Mendez, Perseus Echeminada, Mayen Jaymalin, Artemio Dumlao, AFP