GMA slips past FPJ in Pulse Asia survey

For the first time, President Arroyo has slightly overtaken erstwhile front-runner Fernando Poe Jr. in an opinion poll, with the two in a dead heat ahead of the May 10 presidential election, an independent survey outfit said yesterday. But Mrs. Arroyo’s lead is so thin the situation could change before election day, pollster Pulse Asia said.

While Malacañang welcomed Mrs. Arroyo’s improving poll ratings, Palace officials said it was still anybody’s game. Poe’s camp, on the other hand, questioned the poll’s accuracy.

The Feb. 16-20 poll of 1,800 adults nationwide found that 31.9 percent would vote for Mrs. Arroyo while 31.7 percent would pick Poe. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percent.

Independent candidate Raul Roco was a distant third at 16.2 percent. Sen. Panfilo Lacson placed fourth with 8.3 percent.

Christian evangelist Eduardo Villanueva has 1.2 percent while businessman Eddie Gil has 0.2 percent. Some 8.1 percent are undecided.

This was a sharp improvement for Mrs. Arroyo who, in a Feb. 10-12 survey commissioned by one newspaper, was down nearly eight percentage points from Poe, a popular movie star and a high school dropout.

"If the May national elections were held today, it would be a very close fight for the presidency between President Gloria Arroyo and Mr. Fernando Poe," Pulse Asia said in a statement. "This time around, the contest is between the incumbent president and the movie actor."

Mrs. Arroyo’s spokesman Ignacio Bunye said they were studying the survey results but remarked, "The President has made headway and this is the stage where the President has really begun to fight."

Although Mrs. Arroyo slightly leads Poe, Bunye said it was a "statistical tie." "Actually we’ve been saying that anytime we have a difference of only five percent, it’s still a tie."

He conceded Mrs. Arroyo still had work to do in winning over more of the poor who make up the bulwark of Poe’s supporters.

"She has gained in some other sectors but we’ll see. Probably we need a lot of more explanation so that they (voters) will have a better appreciation of what these programs are," Bunye said.

Arroyo campaign spokesman Michael Defensor said Mrs. Arroyo’s survey rating improved "because people now realize that in the end they try to assess each and every candidate on the basis of who is the best that could lead them in the coming decade."

Poe campaign spokesman, Sorsogon Rep. Francis Escudero, cast doubt on the latest poll results, sarcastically remarking that the sudden rise of Mrs. Arroyo was "incredible."

Poe was getting a better response from the public in all of his campaign sorties compared with Mrs. Arroyo’s, Escudero said.

"It is inconceivable that in only a week’s time, Mr. Poe would suddenly drop to second place when everywhere he goes he has gathered huge crowds expressing their support for him even in places considered as bailiwicks of other presidential candidates," Rufus Rodriguez, spokesman for the Puwersa ng Masang Pilipino, one of the parties in Poe’s Koalisyon ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino coalition, said in a press statement.

Rodriguez claimed it was "fairly certain" the Pulse Asia survey was "timed for release" to coincide with today’s 18th anniversary of the people power revolt, which overthrew the Marcos dictatorship, "so that Mrs. Arroyo can use them as a counterpoint to her expected campaign pitch, disguised as an exhortation for unity and support for her government." He did not elaborate.

The survey results showed no need for them to change their campaign strategy, Rodriguez said.

Mrs. Arroyo has consistently trailed Poe in voter polls since she announced in October last year she would seek a full six-year term. In a similar Pulse Asia survey last month, Poe had 34.6 percent support and Mrs. Arroyo 33.4 percent.

Another pollster, Social Weather Stations, released a survey in January showing Poe with a commanding lead over Mrs. Arroyo, 36 percent against her 27 percent.

Pulse Asia, however, said there was still a large amount of "indecision" prevailing in the country with about 23 percent of registered voters saying there is a "big possibility" they may change their voting intentions between now and the May 10 elections.

"The results suggest an increasing number of voters are taking on a wait-and-see attitude as the official campaign season unfolds with candidates going on their campaign sorties and disclosing their platforms of action," the statement added.

In the contest for the vice presidency, meanwhile, Sen. Noli de Castro, Mrs. Arroyo’s running mate, continues to enjoy a wide lead over his closest rival, Sen. Loren Legarda, Poe’s vice presidential candidate, the same Pulse Asia opinion poll showed.

De Castro got 52.9 percent while Legarda has 31.9 percent.

One political analyst, Earl Parreño, said he doubted whether any poll could truly reflect what would happen at the ballot box.

"Actual number of votes will be determined by the machinery," he told Reuters. "Poe’s rating may have been pulled down by his refusal to go out and explain his platform and discuss issues."

Yesterday, Poe’s representatives failed to show up as Mrs. Arroyo and the other candidates registered for a televised presidential debate on April 13, organizers said.

Escudero said Poe’s participation depended on the campaign schedule but added, "If you ask me, I think he should participate in the debate."

Critics charge Poe is avoiding a debate to hide his shortcomings. The political novice has tried to brush aside such challenges, saying "debates divide the people. And they are just talk. They don’t really do anything to help the masses."

Mrs. Arroyo has increased the pressure on her main rival, challenging Poe to debate on his program of government. However, Poe has, so far, demurred.

Mrs. Arroyo came to power in 2001 amid a military-backed popular revolt that toppled Joseph Estrada, also a former movie star.

Poe, the main opposition candidate, enjoys wide support among the country’s impoverished masses but there have been growing concerns over this qualifications for the job because he is a high school dropout with no experience in public service.

His eligibility to run for the presidency remains clouded because of three petitions filed by several lawyers with the Supreme Court questioning his citizenship.

The tribunal convened again yesterday to weigh arguments about whether Poe is in fact a natural-born Filipino after his birth out of wedlock to an American mother and a father born early last century during the US occupation of the Philippines.

Any ruling would be subject to appeal but there are fears of mass unrest by Poe’s supporters if he is disqualified.

The petitions questioning Poe’s citizenship and eligibility to run have also compounded the general uncertainty over any election in the Philippines, holding the peso near its record low of P56.35 to the dollar. — With Marichu Villanueva, Paolo Romero, AFP, Reuters