Among the names of the generals said to be on Mrs. Arroyo’s "short list," the most prominent that have cropped up are those of AFP vice chief Lt. Gen. Gregorio Camiling, deputy chief of staff Lt. Gen. Narciso Abaya and Southern Command chief Lt. Gen. Roy Cimatu.
All three have their clutch of supporters in the military.
Other contenders for the top military post are Army chief Lt. Gen. Dionisio Santiago, Air Force chief Lt. Gen. Benjamin Defensor and Navy chief Vice Adm. Victorino Hingco.
Acting Press Secretary Silvestre Afable Jr. said last Friday that Mrs. Arroyo had given no indication about her choice.
"The selection of the (AFP) chief of staff really is a prerogative of the President, which she alone exercises in the national interest. And, actually, the Constitution provides that she and she alone has the choice because it’s really necessary for reasons of national security that the President select somebody who has her trust," Afable said.
Among the primary considerations in the selection, Afable said, is the "complete trust and confidence in the person that he will lead the AFP professionally and be loyal to the Constitution, and he will be able to unite all the soldiers and the major commands behind the Constitution and the national interest."
Analysts agree that Mrs. Arroyo "can ill afford to make a wrong call at a time when she is struggling to spur the economy to full recovery and unify a deeply divided country."
An unpopular choice on Mrs. Arroyo’s part could provoke discontent within the Armed Forces which, if stoked by politicians, could weaken her grip on power, they warn.
"The seeds of military adventurism are still there," said former Armed Forces chief and now Sen. Rodolfo Biazon, referring to a string of abortive coup attempts by disgruntled Army officers in the late 1980s against then President Corazon Aquino.
Sources told The STAR the turnover ceremonies for the top military post might be advanced to May 14 because of the President’s tight schedule instead of on May 20, when AFP chief Gen. Diomedio Villanueva hangs his uniform on reaching the mandatory retirment age of 56.
Months ago, Mrs. Arroyo hinted that she might name Cimatu as Villanueva’s successor. But there is some opposition to him because he is not the most senior and he due to retire by July, giving him only two months to serve as AFP chief – unless his term is extended, a practice which the military generally opposes.
In his current post as Southcom chief, Cimatu has direct command of about 40 percent of the 130,000-strong military and is in charge of the country’s most imperative security job: to put down or contain the decades-old Muslim rebellion and crush the Abu Sayyaf bandits in Mindanao.
The US government has linked the Abu Sayyaf to the al-Qaeda terrorist network of fugitive Saudi millionaire Osama bin Laden and has sent hundreds of troop to train Philippine forces to help wipe out the group.
Mrs. Arroyo was reportedly impressed by Cimatu’s handling of the government’s counter-insurgency operations in Mindanao.
Camiling is the most senior and has commanded the most divisions. But Cimatu is reputed to be backed by Defense Secretary Angelo Reyes, himself a former AFP chief, which could be a key factor.
Reyes was AFP chief in January 2001 when he defected to Mrs. Arroyo’s side along with top generals as public opposition to then President Joseph Estrada mounted. It was the final act that led to the former actor’s fall from grace and catapulted Mrs. Arroyo to power.
But appointing Cimatu could provoke charges of a return to a hated practice of late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who extended the careers of aging generals who were loyal to him, political analyst Antonio Gatmaitan said.
The practice helped provoke the people power revolt in 1986 which ended Marcos’s 20-year rule and propelled Aquino to the presidency.
"You could agitate the young, middle-ranking officers and it’s back to the old days," Gatmaitan said.
Last month, an unsigned statement reportedly from a group of generals and military commanders surfaced, warning Mrs. Arroyo of widespread unrest within the military if Cimatu is appointed AFP chief.
Critics said Mrs. Arroyo wants to appoint Cimatu to pay a political debt.
Last year, military officers belonging to Philippine Military Academy Class 1970 – to which Cimatu belongs – played a key role in putting down a riot by thousands of Estrada supporters who tried to storm Malacañang and reinstall Estrada. Further, Mrs. Arroyo is the class’s honorary classmate.
However, retired general Alfred Filler, head of risk-control firm Independent Insights Inc., said even if Mrs. Arroyo’s choice would not be universally popular, discontent would not last long.
"A lot of noise comes up when the time comes for the president to make that choice but the majority of the armed forces are professional and work with whoever the president appoints. I think that’s what is going to happen," Filler said.
Mrs. Arroyo faces considerable opposition from Estrada’s supporters despite her majority in Congress and support from the powerful Roman Catholic Church in addition to the military.
But she also projects an air of vulnerability and rumors of political instability have hounded her 15-month presidency.
"You have to give the least possible reason for your enemies outside to agitate. She must choose the one that will provide the least ammunition to her enemies, the one that will stoke the fires least," Gatmaitan said.
Biazon said any discontent in the military could feed into civil unhappiness.
Mrs. Arroyo’s presidency could seriously be challenged if grumbling among soldiers occurred simultaneously with civic protests, Biazon added. And although there was little dissatisfaction in the military now, it could surface.
"Things can be swayed one way or the other by senior generals and their followers... It will be a crucial decision for Arroyo so there is a need for her to be able to justify her choice.
"Little by little the genie has been pushed back into the bottle," Biazon said, referring to past military adventurists. "But it may not stay there."