Pulse Asia: Estrada standing on thin ice

Despite the boost in his approval ratings during the past week, a random tracking opinion poll of Metro Manila residents revealed that President Estrada actually has little support from the public.

In a survey of 300 Metro Manila residents conducted daily by Pulse Asia, people who strongly oppose the President outnumber those who support him (see chart).

Since the number of people who have very little support for Mr. Estrada slightly outnumbers those who strongly oppose the President, political analyst Felipe Miranda, who heads Pulse Asia, said Mr. Estrada is "standing on thin ice."

"Those who have soft support can become undecided or even become hard opposition," Miranda said.

What the figures are saying, Miranda said, is that while support for the President largely remains intact, the support is not increasing either.

Despite the see-saw movements of people’s opinion, Miranda said that in general, the public’s opinion of Mr. Estrada remained unchanged.

"So far, they are suspending their judgment," he explained. "Looking at how people are closely following the impeachment trial, they want to see more evidence."

In the latest poll, conducted last Wednesday, 23 percent of those polled have "soft support" for the President. These are people who approve of Mr. Estrada, who have much trust in him, who voted for him in the 1998 elections but said they would not vote for him again if given the chance, the survey said.

Those who have "soft support" also include people who approve of Mr. Estrada, who place much trust in him, who voted for him in the 1998 but said they are undecided if they would not vote for him again, the survey said.

They also include people who approve of Mr. Estrada, who trust him very much even though they did not vote for him in 1998.

On the other hand, 20 percent of those surveyed belonged to the "hard opposition" category. These are people who did not vote for Mr. Estrada in 1998, who disapprove of him, and have either very little or no trust in him, the survey said.

Fifteen percent of those surveyed have "hard support," according to the poll. They are people who approve of Mr. Estrada, who have very much trust in him, who voted for him in 1998 and will vote for him again if he could run for a second term, the survey said.

Meanwhile, eight percent of the respondents were found to have a "soft opposition." These are people who disapprove of Mr. Estrada, had very little or no trust in him, who voted for him in 1998 but will still vote for him, the survey revealed.

They also include people who said they disapprove of Mr. Estrada, have very little or no trust in him, voted for him in 1998 but will not vote for him again.

These respondents also include people who said they disapprove of Mr. Estrada, have very little or no trust in him, voted for him in 1998 but are now undecided on whether or not they would do so again.

Only nine percent of those polled were undecided.

The survey, commissioned by and exclusive to The STAR, has a margin of plus or minus six percentage points.

Its objective is to determine how Filipinos view the different political issues concerning the nation as the jueteng scandal drags on. Three hundred Metro Manila residents are polled daily.