Estrada rating stable after start of impeach trial

President Estrada’s approval rating has hit a plateau, remaining stable nearly a week after the start of his unprecedented impeachment trial.

After recovering a week before the trial, Mr. Estrada’s net approval rating peaked on Dec. 7 – the day the historic proceedings began – and basically remained unchanged since, according to a random tracking poll of Metro Manila residents conducted daily by Pulse Asia.

The survey, commissioned by and exclusive to The STAR, has a margin of plus or minus six percentage points.

Its objective is to determine how Filipinos view the different political issues concerning the nation as the jueteng scandal drags on. Three hundred Metro Manila residents are polled daily.

At the start of the poll on Nov. 16, Mr. Estrada enjoyed a net approval rating of +11 percent but his ratings steadily went down almost immediately.

After hitting rock bottom at -4 percent on Nov. 30, it recovered dramatically and peaked on Dec. 7 at +20 percent. It posted +19 percent on Dec. 8, +17 percent on Dec. 9, +20 percent on Dec. 10, and +18 percent last Monday.

However, political analyst Felipe Miranda, who heads Pulse Asia, quickly pointed out that Mr. Estrada cannot take comfort in the latest figures.

"Not with these figures because they can turn the other way around very fast," Miranda explained, adding that "unless something dramatic happens" there might be no changes.

Mr. Estrada’s ratings levelled because the public’s opinion of the President basically remained unchanged despite all the evidence and witnesses presented by prosecutors at the impeachment trial, Miranda said.

"So far the people haven’t found anything exciting enough," he said.

Miranda added that the legalistic wrangling over seemingly insignificant details in the trial might be boring the public.

"They cannot identify with procedural discussions. They are more interested in substantial results," he said.

Miranda earlier attributed Mr. Estrada’s recovery in the ratings (from Nov. 30 to Dec. 7) mainly to rising approval ratings from respondents belonging to Class D (from 43 percent on Dec. 1 to 55 percent on Dec. 7).

But Miranda added that things could quickly reverse because people in Class D have a history of changing their minds quickly. Although they "usually don’t hold grudges very long," he said, they can be easily swayed to go the other way.

Miranda also attributed Mr. Estrada’s ratings to the impeachment process. They meant that Filipinos want to "give the impeachment process a chance to work," he said, and they want to "know the truth" in the jueteng bribery allegations against Mr. Estrada.