Estrada Senate allies get lowest ratings

Although President Estrada’s historic impeachment trial begins on Dec. 7 — if it gets underway at all — all eyes are already on the 22 senators, particularly on how they will decide on Mr. Estrada’s fate.

Senate President Aquilino Pimentel Jr., the man who will steer the chamber, knows that the Senate itself is also on trial.

He said that although the Senate will hand down the verdict — whether Mr. Estrada should stay or go — "the ultimate judge will be the people."

Results of a Pulse Asia tracking opinion poll of 300 Metro Manila residents released yesterday gave the first glimpse of how the public initially views the 22 senators sitting as jurors in Asia’s first ever impeachment trial.

With the notable exception of Pimentel, senators allied with Mr. Estrada scored relatively low public approval ratings in the tracking poll, conducted daily from Nov. 16 to Nov. 24 by Pulse Asia. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus six percentage points.

In contrast, opposition senators posted high approval ratings. Several of them saw their approval ratings rise as the tracking poll wore on.

Pimentel bucked the trend by registering one of the highest approval ratings. His rating steadily rose from a net approval rating of +38 percent in Nov. 16 to +47 percent in Nov. 24.

The rest of the survey results are as follows: Loren Legarda, from +50 percent in Nov. 16 to +52 percent in Nov. 24; Raul Roco, from +30 percent to +47 percent in the same period; Juan Flavier, from +37 to +46; Renato Cayetano, from +38 to +43; Franklin Drilon, from +22 to +34 percent; Rodolfo Biazon, from +27 percent to +31 percent;

Robert Barbers, from +18 percent to +25 percent; Teofisto Guingona, from +19 percent to +23 percent; Ramon Magsaysay Jr., from +23 percent to +20 percent; Sergio Osmeña III, from +12 percent to +20 percent; Francisco Tatad, from +11 percent to +17 percent;

Vicente Sotto III, from +8 percent and +16 percent; Blas Ople, from +8 percent to +16 percent; Gregorio Honasan, from +7 percent to +14 percent; Miriam Defensor-Santiago, from +7 percent to +12 percent; Anna Dominique Coseteng, from +12 percent to +11 percent;

John Osmeña, from +4 percent to +7 percent; Ramon Revilla, from -8 percent to +5 percent; Robert Jaworski, from -3 percent to +4 percent; Juan Ponce Enrile, from +2 percent to +3 percent; and Tessie Aquino-Oreta, from -8 percent to -3 percent.

Pulse Asia president Felipe Miranda said the survey will be conducted up to Dec. 20 but may be extended depending on the circumstances.

"It might also be overtaken by events," Miranda added, referring to the widespread clamor for Mr. Estrada’s resignation.

Miranda, a political analyst himself, said the study was limited to Metro Manila for two reasons.

One, it would be impossible to conduct a tracking opinion poll on a national scale because of the immense logistical requirement. He stressed that such a poll cannot be done in other countries.

Another reason is that Metro Manila is the "most informed, most critical, most articulate and most crucial" when it comes to sensitive political issues.

Analyzing the senators’ approval ratings, Miranda said the survey shows how the public "assesses the process" of impeachment, and their level of trust in the senators.

In Pimentel’s case, his handling of the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee investigation into the jueteng scandal and his promise to hold a swift but fair impeachment trial earned him respect from the public, Miranda said.

Although allied with the LAMP administration coalition, Miranda said Pimentel’s rating showed the "people were giving him the benefit of the doubt."

However, things could still change, especially once the impeachment trial finally gets under way and Filipinos get to see how the senators will conduct themselves during the proceedings, Miranda said. For now, the current figures show only the people’s initial perception of the Senate.

The entire survey not only covers people’s perceptions of the 22 senators in the impeachment trial, but it also tracks public opinion and sentiments regarding trust in key personalities.

Presidential issues which are troubling the public as well as the public’s preferred urgent presidential responses will be covered by the survey, as well as the rallies and their effects on public support or rejection of the administration, and the most current public opinion on an immediate presidential resignation.

It will also track the President’s approval rating. These issues will each be presented by The STAR in the days to come.

To get a more accurate public opinion, the survey said 30 new respondents are interviewed daily.

"Initially, 300 respondents are interviewed to make the first points of the data immediately readable. Then every day, from Nov. 18 to Dec. 20, 30 respondents are added to the sample, while at the same time 30 respondents from the original 300 respondents are dropped off. This creates a continuously moving average of 300 interviews," the survey said.

To get a fairly accurate poll, Miranda said respondents were selected at random and were personally interviewed and sometimes reinterviewed.

"Six (sample) precincts are distributed among the 17 cities and municipalities (in Metro Manila) in such a way that each city/municipality is assigned a number of precincts that is roughly proportional to its population size," the survey explained the methods used in the poll.

Pollsters made sure that the respondents they interviewed were residents in the area.

"At least 20 percent of the unsupervised interviews are re-interviewed/back-checked. If serious errors persist after 20 percent spot-checking, the original interviews are invalidated and respondents re-interviewed. An error is considered serious if dishonesty in recording was apparent or if there was a serious misinterpretation of the study that it resulted in the wrong information," the study said.

"If some questionnaires are found incomplete or had inconsistent answers, the interviewer is asked to go back to the respondent, so that the questionnaire could be completed and corrected."