Estrada will lose in snap election -- survey

If snap polls were held today, President Estrada would lose to his Vice President, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, according to the latest HB&A survey on Metro Manila residents.

The President, in fact, would wind up a poor third behind Sen. Raul Roco, results of the survey conducted from Feb. 10-16, 2000 said.

"President Estrada's overall performance ratings remained largely the same as in October 1999 - when he suffered double-digit declines," the international research firm said in its first report for this year.

"His approval grades, credibility and trust ratings are virtually unchanged. While his satisfaction scores rose a significant 7-percentage points, this is still vastly lower than his August 1998 ratings when HB&A ran its first post-election survey," it said.

The President's approval rating was at 52 percent, a far cry from the 81 percent in August 1998.

Asked what they thought were the reasons behind the reported declining popularity of the President, Metro Manilans' top answers related to the President's decision-making and presidential abilities, his credibility, and the problems besetting the country.

"If elections were held this month, Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and Sen. Raul Roco apparently figure the most in the minds of Metro Manilans, where possible presidency is concerned," HB&A said.

Arroyo and Roco apparently were perceived as better options, with both garnering more than twice the President's votes out of 500 respondents.

Arroyo netted 40 percent, Roco 35 percent, and Mr. Estrada 16 percent in the survey representing a cross-section of Metro Manila adults.

"The Vice President's very high popularity in the capital region may, to a great extent, explain her popularity in the mock polls," the HB&A report said.

"Approval of the way she has been doing her job as Vice President and Social Welfare Secretary is even higher than the 80 percent recorded last October, at 86 percent," it noted.

Arroyo even beat Roco in Metro Manila, which he considers his bailiwick, because of the so-called youth votes, along with the Bicol Region, where he comes from.

This was the remark made yesterday by Executive Secretary Ronaldo Zamora on calls by a militant group of veteran activists from the 1986 EDSA Revolution for Mr. Estrada to hold a snap election.

Zamora brushed aside the Sept. 21 Committee's claims that the President had "betrayed EDSA" and should therefore call for a snap election "or face the people who will stage another revolt."

"I think they must be dreaming. President Estrada won by the largest margin ever in Philippine history," he pointed out.

Zamora likewise dismissed the group's statement that Mr. Estrada should not join the 14th anniversary program of the People Power revolution today.

The Sept. 21 Committee said the President was a non-player in the four-day revolt that toppled the 20-year Marcos regime, and had no place in today's anniversary celebration.

Among the committee members are Senate Minority Leader Teofisto Guingona, former Solicitor General Francisco Chavez, and Father Joe Dizon. They plan to hold a separate rally today in front of Camp Crame.

Mr. Estrada himself shrugged off the militant demands of the group which he described as a mere minority whose views do not represent the greater majority that elected him to office.

He said he owes a debt to EDSA since without it he would never have reached the highest post in the land.

"For me, EDSA is very important because if not for the EDSA Revolution, I would not have become Senator Erap, nor had become Vice President Estrada and neither would I've been president," he said.

The President was referring to the time he was mayor of San Juan when the revolution broke out. A few months after President Corazon Aquino was installed into office, Mr. Estrada was among the local government officials who were forced out of office.

However, Mr. Estrada won a senate seat in 1987, the first under the new Constitution, took the vice presidency in 1992, and the presidency six years later.

That is why, he pointed out, he made sure the legacy and the spirit of EDSA during the four-day peaceful revolt would be immortalized and institutionalized through his creation last year of the 25-member EDSA Commission.

Among the members of the commission are Aquino, former President Fidel Ramos and Manila Archbishop Jaime Cardinal Sin.

"So I owe a great deal of debt to EDSA. I appeal to all to let us continue what EDSA started and to be inspired by the spirit of EDSA," he said during a radio program yesterday. "I should go there to join our EDSA heroes."

He concluded: "Perhaps, EDSA was not only important in the life of Erap but for the entire country because it gave us back our democratic government."

Zamora, for his part, said that he himself would not join today's EDSA program, a commemoration he has never attended in the past 14 years.

"Are we going to kid each other? I was not on the right side during EDSA. I don't think I should now pass myself off as being there when I wasn't there; that would be untrue of me," he quipped.

Like the President, Zamora had been associated with the deposed regime of the late President Ferdinand Marcos where he also once served as executive secretary. --