6 months into Vaccine rollout: Herd immunity is still a far cry

CEBU, Philippines —  The prospect of achieving herd immunity in Cebu, and Central Visayas in general, remains a lofty dream six months after health authorities embarked on a mass vaccination campaign.

From the beginning, the target was clear: herd immunity could be achieved if at least 70 percent of the population is inoculated.

According to the World Health Organization, herd immunity is the indirect protection from an infectious disease that happens when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed through previous infection. WHO says it supports achieving herd immunity through vaccination.

As of September 15, 2021, or about six months after the vaccination rollout, only 782,526 individuals out of the 3.6 million eligible population in Cebu have been fully vaccinated.

At this rate, would it be possible for Cebu to attain herd immunity by yearend?

“That question is for everybody,” said DOH-7 assistant director Guy Perez in a virtual press conference yesterday. “If everybody will just work together, know their different roles and responsibility, be a champion on why we are doing this immunization kay there are different aspects and challenges, (then I can say maybe we can attain it by yearend).”

Perez said herd immunity is a collective goal: the media, for instance, informs the people about the vaccination rollout; the DOH provides the vaccines; the local government units provide the allocation lists in order to have a continuous vaccine supply from the national government.

All these, Perez said, are basic ingredients to herd immunity.

Dr. Van Philip Baton, DOH-7 medical coordinator for infectious diseases, agreed.

“Whatever we do right now cannot determine what is the end result of this at the end of the year,” Baton said, explaining that there are myriad of issues to address like the supply issue.

“What DOH is saying right now is, everyone, when they have a chance to get vaccinated, should be vaccinated because it will immediately add to their (LGU’s) accomplishment,” Baton said.

Baton said it is too early to say herd immunity could be reached anytime soon because it is a multifaceted issue -- a lot of experts are talking about herd immunity, population immunity, population protection and a lot of numbers are being mentioned.

But supply is not the lone concern.

“Because if everyone wants to get vaccinated, supply na lang atong hunahunaon. If supply gets in, everyone is waiting for the supply, dali ra mahurot. But the problem is if both the demand and supply are the issues,” he said.

“But if we can eliminate one of the problems, if we can eliminate the demand issue and we just have to wait for supply, I think that is one of the problems solved,” he added.

Anti-vaxxers a ‘hindrance’

DOH-7 chief pathologist Dr. Mary Jean Loreche said that anti-vaxxers are among the hindrances to achieving the herd immunity by yearend.

Based on the latest stats from the Visayas COVID-19 Vaccination Operation Center, a total of 1,791,599 doses have been administered (1,009,073 first doses and 782,526 second doses) across all public and private vaccination centers in Cebu as of September 15, 2021.

Loreche said that Cebu City has administered a total of 552,953 doses (320,680 first doses and 232,273 second doses). It has 665,187 eligible vaccinees.

In Mandaue City, a total of 316,720 doses have been administered (171,619 first doses and 145,101 second doses). The city has 307,454 eligible vaccinees.

Lapu-Lapu City has administered a total of 297,761 doses (165,220 first doses and 132,541 second doses). It has 346,179 eligible vaccinees.

Cebu province, for its part, has given a total of 624,165 doses (351,554 first doses and 272,611 second doses).

Loreche said masterlisting for the eligible population for vaccination in Cebu province is still ongoing.

Earlier, Loreche reported a “very low” turnout of vaccinees in Metro Cebu (the cities of Mandaue, Cebu, Lapu-Lapu, Talisay and Naga and the towns

of Minglanilla, Consolacion, and Cordova) from September 6 to 12, 2021. Over such period, only 23,672 doses were administered or 17 percent against the 141,750 target doses for that period.

Regional Numbers

Meanwhile, some 130,370 or 98.8 percent out of the 131,989 eligible vaccines under the A1 priority group or healthcare workers in Central Visayas are now fully vaccinated.

Among the A2 category or the senior citizens -- with eligible population of 567,177 -- 163,086 or 28.8 percent have received their first dose and 211,043 or 37.4 percent have received their second dose.

As for A3 or persons with comorbidities, administered doses are at 306,789 or 43.5 percent for the first dose and 314,190 or 49.6 percent for the second dose. This group has 632,992 eligible vaccinees.

For the A4 or the economic frontliners, which has a total eligible population of 935,988, only 505,729 or 54 percent so far have received the first dose and 320,035 or 34.2 percent, second dose.

Finally, under the A5 priority group or the indigent population, 94,267 or 5.56 percent have received first dose and 52,796 or 3.12 percent have received the second dose. There are 1,694,564 eligible vaccinees in this group across the region. — JMD (FREEMAN)