MANILA, Philippines — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) kept its 2025 growth forecast for the Philippines at 5.5 percent and slightly raised its projection for 2026 to 5.9 percent, signaling a steady economic outlook despite persistent global uncertainties.
In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) update, the IMF maintained its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for this year, which remains within the government’s target range of 5.5 to 6.5 percent.
The updated projection for 2026 marks a 0.1-percentage-point increase from the IMF’s April estimate, but still falls short of the government’s six to seven percent growth target for that year.
The IMF did not elaborate on the Philippines’ projections in the report, but the broader regional and global outlook suggests that ongoing uncertainty from trade tensions and fiscal vulnerabilities could cap growth momentum in emerging markets, including Southeast Asia.
For the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-5, composed of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, the IMF raised its 2025 growth projection by 0.1 point to 4.1 percent.
It also upgraded the group’s 2026 outlook by 0.2 point to the same 4.1 percent, signaling modest improvements in regional recovery.
The IMF said global growth is expected to reach three percent in 2025, up from its earlier forecast of 2.8 percent, supported by better financial conditions, a weaker dollar and front-loaded trade and investment activity.
For 2026, global output is projected to rise slightly to 3.1 percent.
“This reflects stronger-than-expected front-loading in anticipation of higher tariffs, lower average effective US tariff rates than announced in April, an improvement in financial conditions, including due to a weaker dollar and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions,” the IMF said.
Global inflation is expected to moderate further, falling to 4.2 percent in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 2026, although the pace of disinflation and monetary easing will vary across regions.
The IMF emphasized the need for credible fiscal policies, transparent trade frameworks, and continued structural reforms to sustain growth and restore confidence.
While the Philippine economy is seen to stay on track this year, the below-target forecast for 2026 may reflect the expected payback from trade front-loading and lingering global headwinds, underscoring the need for domestic policy support and investment in productivity-enhancing reforms.