MANILA, Philippines — The National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) has elevated its summer supply crunch concern to Malacañang after the Department of Energy (DOE) downplayed power deficit worries during the election period and peak dry months.
In a letter to the President, NGCP vice chairman Robert Coyiuto Jr. and president and CEO Anthony Almeda asked the government to declare holidays during the election period to avoid power interruptions as the grid operator presented a worst-case scenario during summer and elections with historical data on unplanned plant shutdowns.
“While these are merely objections, and the actual supply-demand dynamic will keep on moving, we are urging the government to look more closely at possible demand side interventions, including but not limited to, the declaration of a special non-working holiday on critical election and counting days,” it said.
The NGCP said the Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP), a consolidated preventive maintenance schedule of power plants, is not always followed.
“Considering the increasing regularity and severity of unplanned maintenance shutdowns by power plants, it is imperative to include historical data on shutdowns outside the GOMP,” it said.
In its forecast with historical unplanned shutdowns, the NGCP projects 15 weeks of yellow alerts and 14 weeks of red alerts with an average forced outage estimate of 1,927 megawatts (MW).
NGCP said the yellow and red alert notices could happen between now and June.
A red alert status is issued when supplies are insufficient to meet consumer demand and the transmission grid’s regulating requirement. A yellow alert means there are not enough reserves to cover the largest running generating unit at the time but does not necessarily lead to power outages.
“Red and yellow alerts simply mean that the consumers are vulnerable to power interruptions,” it said.
The NGCP said the rotational power interruptions were declared on May 31 and June 1, 2021 when almost 4,000 MW were unavailable in the Luzon grid due to unscheduled maintenance shutdowns and derated operations.
It also noted the yellow alert status declared over the Luzon grid last Jan. 10 and 11 despite low demand, as several generating units already extended their maintenance shutdowns while others derated operations and decreased their committed generation output.
The DOE earlier said simulations showed possible red alert and yellow alert warnings in the two-week period from April 18 to May 1 and from May 16 to 29, sparing the election week.
However, climate and energy policy group Institute of Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) said this projection is already the most optimistic scenario and is far from ideal because this projection does not account for the potential unplanned outages of coal power plants.
In its report titled “Luzon Power Outlook: Determining the Adequacy of Power Supply for April to June 2022,” ICSC warned of possible electricity shortfall in the weeks leading up to and after the May elections, which could undermine the credibility of electoral process.
“Unreliable electricity supply would undermine the credibility of the elections. We need our electrical power system to provide reliable supply especially during election day and while transmitting data; otherwise, our political power system might fail if the results are not accepted by our people,” ICSC senior policy advisor Pedro Maniego Jr. said.
The ICSC also cited historical trends and current power reserve issues as it anticipates a 1,335-MW deficit in the country’s electricity supply during peak demand, leading to a red alert status and possible blackouts over the Luzon grid in the second quarter.
“Grid alert levels after unplanned outages of a few baseload plants show how vulnerable the power system can be to centralized generators. We experience rotating blackouts while still paying for high electricity costs. This emphasizes the more urgent need for an energy transition based on distributed energy sources. We need to pick up its pace, because we cannot keep returning to the same situation every year,” ICSC chief data scientist and report co-author Jephraim Manansala said.