The vaccines are coming, but this does not really mean the Philippines is home free definitely, not by a long shot. Unlike developed countries like the US, Canada, or UK, our vaccination plan is deterred by a myriad of challenges: funds, network, and skepticism.
Government health experts have laid out a plan for herd immunity, targeting as many as 70 million Filipinos. Most of the money that will buy the vaccines, however, still needs to be borrowed. So far, the government has just ordered 2.6 million shots, which is good only for 1.3 million people.
The government estimates it will need P73.2 billion to fund its vaccination plan, of which P40 billion would come from “low-cost, long-term” loans from the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank. Another P20 billion would be sourced from the Land Bank of the Philippines and the Development Bank of the Philippines, and the remainder from bilateral loans.
To stretch the purchasing power of these loans, our health experts are looking at manufactured vaccines that would be at the lower end of the cost spectrum, which have been identified to be Johnson & Johnson, Sinovac, and Pfizer/BioNTech.
Still, the Philippine government estimates that a complete two-shot dose would cost P1,200 per person, including the cost of syringes, disposal, administration, and other incidentals. The earliest vaccinations are seen by the second quarter of 2021.
New realities
The Sinovac and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines have already been issued for the most vulnerable in countries that have given emergency use authorization for health workers and the aged. J&J’s vaccine, to be administered in a single dose, is still moving into its final trials with results expected early next year.
The Philippines is earmarking the first shipments of vaccines for frontline health workers, senior citizens, the indigent, and uniformed personnel – totaling about 21 million. Except for hospital personnel, administration for others will take time.
This means that the health protocols governing the COVID-19 epoch will still be around: mask wearing, social distancing, sanitizer use, and frequent hand washing. Until population immunity is achieved, caution still needs to be practiced within the new normal code.
Some major airline companies are already preparing for a vaccination passport that will allow holders to fly without fear, and this could well be the new reality for mobility on almost any form of travel. Such passports could extend to indoor dining, concerts, and other social practices that involve gathering people in enclosed areas.
We are entering a new phase in the pandemic, a healing period if one may call it, when the world is starting to wield a more lethal weapon to eliminate a killer virus. Mass vaccination, however, will be uneven, with developed countries reaching immunity faster than poorer countries.
For the Philippines, this poses a handicap as it tries to regain back its momentum for economic growth. It will extend the timeline of poverty alleviation and increased wealth distribution for a wider population base. It means getting back in the race later than others.
Anxiety hurdles
Another hurdle to getting the vaccine to majority of Filipinos is the fear of possible side effects. This is understandable because it usually takes years for a vaccine to be approved for use, whereas the development for a COVID-19 vaccine had taken less than a year.
With so much yet unknown, an informal survey taken among seniors has resulted in majority expressing reluctance about getting the shots. Almost all pregnant health workers have flatly said they would rather not avail of the vaccine.
It does not help that social media allows the proliferation of falsehoods and conspiracy theories, further fanning the anxiety of the less informed. Many of my friends have said they will wait out the next three to six months to observe if there would be any ill-effect on people in the Western hemisphere that have received the vaccine.
The UK has already started distributing the vaccine, made by Pfizer/BioNTech to the first 50 hospitals, and as publicized, has started giving these to their elderly and hospital staff. The US and Canada have scheduled inoculation starting this week.
To counter public apprehension, the British government has started an information campaign about the vaccine. Much centers on material that the Pfizer/BioNTech’s vaccine does not alter human cells, but simply gives instructions for the body to build COVID immunity.
It also answers the big question of how this vaccine could have been developed at breakneck speed, the key being the extraordinary amount of money that had been made available to vaccine research and development by leading pharmaceutical companies.
Governments and donors, according to data aggregators, have poured in as much as $12 billion as “insurance” to the risky business of producing vaccines. If drug firms had been left alone, none would have ventured to pour in such big amounts.
The next few months will be crucial in determining how the pace of vaccination will continue given the availability of vaccines that would be produced and the money we can muster to buy these. There could be other unexpected setbacks, but all eyes must be on getting past these.
Until COVID-19 is beaten, we can’t rest easy.
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