Himalayan landslide can very well happen to us

The horrific videos from the Himalayan border of Nepal and Tibet were harrowing. A wall of ice, mud and rock came crashing into a mountain river, unleashing a flash flood that swallowed homes, roads, bridges and communities. Hundreds have been reported dead, with many more missing as rescuers confront broken roads, unstable slopes and the threat of further flooding.

For Filipinos, the disaster should not be treated as a distant tragedy in a faraway mountain range – it is a warning.

Scientists are still examining the precise chain of events. Early assessments indicate a massive ice-and-rock avalanche collapsing into a river, generating the destructive surge. Experts have cautioned against attributing any single disaster solely to climate change but aver that rising temperatures are destabilizing high-mountain environments. Glaciers are retreating, freeze-and-thaw patterns are changing and slopes once held together by ice are becoming more vulnerable.

The Philippines has no Himalayan glaciers, but the basic lesson applies directly to us: when extreme weather meets weakened terrain, the result can be catastrophic.

Our country is one of the most disaster-prone in the world. An average of 20 tropical cyclones enter the Philippine area of responsibility every year. PAGASA’s latest climate projections indicate heavy daily rainfall becoming more frequent, with extreme rainfall increasing in parts of Luzon and the Visayas. We don’t have to imagine what rain-induced landslides and flash floods look like. We have witnessed them in Leyte, Benguet, Cebu, Davao de Oro and many other provinces.

But too often, we describe these events as natural disasters when it is human actions that have made them deadlier. Illegal logging strips mountains of roots that help hold soil together and absorb rainfall. Kaingin and uncontrolled land conversion expose slopes to erosion.

Mining and quarrying can destabilize terrain when laws, engineering standards and environmental safeguards are ignored. Roads and settlements are built in areas classified by geohazard maps as highly susceptible. Rivers are narrowed or clogged, while watersheds lose their capacity to slow and store water. Then the rains come – and government officials act surprised.

The connection is not complicated. Forests cannot prevent every landslide, especially those driven by earthquakes or immense geological forces. Neither can every flood be blamed on logging or mining. Healthy forests and watersheds are among our strongest natural defenses. When they are destroyed, rain runs off faster, soil erodes more easily, rivers fill with sediment and communities downstream face greater danger.

A DENR-supported assessment of the Laguna de Bay basin, for example, warned that rapid deforestation in the watershed is causing soil erosion and sedimentation, reducing the lake’s storage capacity and increasing flood risk for Metro Manila. This is precisely why environmental protection is not an abstract concern for activists. It is public safety, economic security and national survival.

We already possess much of the information needed to reduce the danger. The Mines and Geosciences Bureau has geohazard maps identifying areas susceptible to floods and landslides. Local governments know which families live below unstable slopes, beside swollen rivers or in places where evacuation routes can quickly become impassable. The real question is whether we act before the disaster – not after it.

Enforcement must be relentless against illegal logging, illegal mining and irresponsible quarrying. Financiers and protectors of these operations must be prosecuted, not just poor workers caught onsite. Mining permits and environmental compliance certificates must never become shields for destructive practices. Local officials who ignore hazard warnings or allow construction in no-build zones must be held accountable. At the same time, legal and responsible mining should be distinguished from operations that disregard science and the law.

The Philippines needs minerals for industry, energy transition and national development. But no investment can justify endangering communities or sacrificing watersheds that took generations to form. Responsible development means rigorous assessment, transparent monitoring, proper use of rehabilitation funds (if they exist) and swift suspension when safety standards are violated.

Reforestation should be more than ceremonial tree planting, with the right native species, planted in the right places, protected long enough to mature. Critical watersheds and remaining old-growth forests should be defended as national infrastructure. A forested mountain is as essential to flood control as a concrete dike, and often more enduring.

Barangays in high-risk areas should have practical evacuation plans that residents understand. Warning systems must reach people quickly, including those without smartphones. Roads, bridges, schools and evacuation centers should be designed according to hazards shown on government maps. Families in highly dangerous areas must be given realistic relocation options, not simply ordered to leave without livelihood, transport or basic services.

Climate change is no longer a prediction for the next generation – it is an amplifier of dangers we already face. Stronger rainfall on denuded mountains, silted rivers and poorly planned communities are a formula for tragedy.

The heartbreaking scenes from the Himalayas show how quickly a familiar landscape can be transformed into a field of mud and debris. Homes disappeared, roads were erased and families were separated in just minutes. Geography offered no mercy, and there was hardly any time for escape.

We cannot stop every typhoon, earthquake or landslide, but we can stop people from cutting protected forests, tearing into unstable slopes and building where danger is already identified. We can enforce the law before lives are lost. We can treat warnings as instructions, not suggestions.

The Himalayan catastrophe can very well happen to us – not in exactly the same way, but with the same terrifying speed and human cost. If that happens, we can no longer say that nature gave us no warning – it is already before our eyes.

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