Destiny or redemption

The race for the PBA Governors Cup title begins at the Smart Araneta Coliseum tonight with Barangay Ginebra and Meralco disputing the last conference crown of the season. The best-of-seven series will be fiercely fought for sure as both teams are hungry for victory. Ginebra hasn’t won a championship in eight years while Meralco has never made it to the throne at all.

Ginebra fans insist it’s the call of destiny for the Barangay to win a crown in coach Tim Cone’s first year at the helm. How Ginebra got past San Miguel Beer in the semifinals without leading local scorer and rebounder Greg Slaughter had to mean something. Chris Ellis has been sidelined the last 11 games so he, too, was badly missed in the San Miguel duel. But somehow, Cone managed to keep the ship adrift and sail it to shore. Ginebra’s resiliency was nothing short of amazing as Cone reorganized his troops to get the most out of what was available.

In Ginebra’s 115-108 win over San Miguel in Game 1 of the semifinals, L. A. Tenorio went scoreless and still the Beermen lost. In Game 5, Cone showed his trust in Sol Mercado and Scottie Thompson by starting them with Tenorio. Mercado and Thompson were both scoreless in Game 4 which San Miguel won, 101-72. It was only the fourth start for the Three Musketeers in the conference and the trio delivered as Ginebra clinched, 117-92. Ginebra never lost in those four games where the Big (or Small) Three started – 107-93 over Meralco, 116-103 over Star, 97-96 over San Miguel in Game 3 of the semifinals and Game 5.

Meralco fans claim it’s redemption time for the Bolts. From a last-place finish in the Philippine Cup this season, coach Norman Black has brought Meralco four wins away from bagging its first-ever PBA title. Meralco started the Governors Cup with back-to-back wins and ended the eliminations with a 6-5 record that could’ve easily been 10-1 because four of the Bolts’ losses were by four points or less. Ginebra was the only team that beat Meralco by a wide margin, 14.

Black has put Meralco in a winning situation, coming off three victories in a row, five of its last six. Just like Ginebra, Meralco displayed resiliency in overcoming Jared Dillinger’s absence in the last two games of the semifinal series against TNT and won both outings to advance to the championship playoffs.

The opposing imports are expected to neutralize each other. Ginebra’s Justin Brownlee is averaging 29.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 2.6 turnovers while hitting 36.4 percent from beyond the arc, 51.2 percent from the floor and 66.7 percent from the line. Meralco’s Allen Durham is averaging 29.4 points, 15.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 3.9 turnovers while shooting 36.6 percent from the three-point arc, 57.3 percent from the field and 73 percent from the stripe. If Brownlee and Durham cancel each other out, it will be up to the locals to make the difference.

In terms of rotation, both Ginebra and Meralco are about even in depth. Ginebra has seven players logging at least 20 minutes and 10 players checking in at least 10 minutes. Meralco has six players logging at least 20 minutes and 11 at least 10 minutes.

Both teams boast of three locals averaging in double figure points. For Ginebra, they’re Tenorio (15.2), Japeth Aguilar (14.1) and Sol Mercado (11.4). For Meralco, they’re Cliff Hodge (13.3), Chris Newsome (13.1) and Dillinger (10.4). Thompson is contributing solid numbers for Ginebra, averaging 6.6 points, 8.3 rebounds and 4.1 assists while for Meralco, Reynel Hugnatan and Jimmy Alapag are chipping in big figures. Hugnatan is averaging 9.1 points and hitting 40 percent from beyond the arc. In the semifinals, Hugnatan hit at a 14.1 clip, punctuated by a 21-point effort in Game 3. Alapag is averaging 8.6 points, 2.1 rebounds and 4.4 assists while shooting 45.9 percent from the three-point arc. The Mighty Mouse has taken more three-point attempts (74) than two-pointers (15), indicating his specialty.

A match-up master, Black assigned Newsome to defend Jayson Castro in the semifinals and the size advantage proved decisive. He’ll likely put Newsome on Tenorio in the finals. Black could use a big lineup with Newsome at one, Dillinger at two (if he’s recovered from a hamstring strain), Hodge at three, Hugnatan at four and Durham at five to battle Cone’s small lineup of Tenorio at one, Mercado at two, Thompson at three, Aguilar at four and Brownlee at five. Will it be size or speed to dictate the tempo in the finals?

Ginebra is No. 1 in the league in defense, giving up 95.2 points a game and No. 1 in field goal percentage allowed at 41.1. It’s also No. 1 in assists (25.6), No. 1 in least free throws allowed (18.9) and No. 3 in rebounds (50.7). Meralco, on the other hand, is No. 2 in assists (23.2), No. 2 in field goal percentage (47.1), No. 1 in least rebounds allowed (43.9), No. 1 in least second chance points allowed (12.3) and No. 1 in least fastbreak points allowed (8.8). The numbers show that both teams like to win with defense. Seven of Meralco’s 10 wins this conference came when the Bolts held their opponents to less than 90 points. Nine of Ginebra’s 12 wins this conference came when the Barangay limited its opponents to less than 90.

“Trying to match up with Meralco’s athleticism is going to be tough for us and of course, with Durham himself,” said Cone. “He’s a huge inside presence who can also step outside and do damage. Plus, he’s unselfish. Also, the leadership over there is tough. Norman is one of the best X and O coaches we’ve ever had. He’s a great adjustment coach which is a great skill in a series. He may truly be our toughest match-up. Then, add Luigi Trillo who knows our system well.”

Cone singled out Alapag as Meralco’s X factor. “He impacts the game in many ways and not always in the scorebook,” he said. “If he has a great series, then watch out.” In the semifinals, Alapag averaged 11 points. He was particularly lethal with 16 points in Game 2 and 17 in Game 3 to set the tone for the clincher in Game 4.

Black said the match-up between imports will be hard-fought “considering both players have been outstanding and very productive.” He continued, “Our feeling is that defense will be the key to the series because the best way to combat a strong defensive team like Ginebra is to go out and defend them ... with that said, we will have to find a way to slow down L. A. and Japeth while also keeping Scottie off the boards.”

Black said Joe DeVance is also “a big concern.” As for Dillinger’s availability, Black said it’s not sure when he can play. “We’ll have to deal with a little adversity as J. D. will be out with a hamstring injury at the start of the series and we’re not sure when he will return,” he said.

Meralco hasn’t beaten Ginebra in three games so far this season but that’s something neither Cone nor Black will think about in the finals. It’ll be the PBA’s version of the Hunger Games where destiny comes to grips with the call for redemption. More than ever in the finals, the intangibles will play a key role to decide the winner because both teams are evenly matched on the floor. That will mean the drive to win, motivation, crowd support, intensity, energy and all-out hustle. This could go all the way to Game 7.